***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2015.-20.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 23.9 24.0 25.3 -0.8 35.2 40.1 23.9 24.5 25.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 23.9 24.3 25.3 -1.0 34.7 37.4 24.2 25.1 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 24.2 24.5 25.4 -0.9 36.1 39.3 24.4 24.9 25.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 17.4 17.4 23.3 -1.1 30.7 35.5 17.5 18.3 18.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 25.0 24.8 24.0 -0.7 37.2 41.9 24.7 25.8 26.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 23.8 24.0 22.0 -0.7 33.7 40.5 24.0 24.4 25.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 23.6 24.0 25.2 -0.9 35.9 38.6 23.7 24.9 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 13.4 14.1 22.8 -0.2 46.3 48.8 13.6 14.2 14.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 24.4 24.8 24.5 -0.5 41.2 44.6 24.5 25.3 25.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 24.1 24.6 23.2 -0.4 41.6 45.8 24.1 25.0 25.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 24.8 25.0 23.8 -0.5 39.0 44.4 24.3 25.6 26.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 23.9 24.8 23.8 -0.2 45.5 48.1 23.8 24.9 25.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 25.0 25.3 23.4 -0.5 37.0 43.9 25.1 25.8 26.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 23.9 24.5 23.7 -0.8 35.4 39.3 24.4 24.9 25.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 25.2 25.0 24.1 -1.2 29.1 32.9 25.1 25.7 26.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 25.5 25.7 23.6 -0.6 35.7 42.4 25.6 26.5 27.0 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 22.6 23.1 24.5 -1.3 29.2 32.4 23.2 24.3 25.1 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 23.3 23.7 22.2 -0.6 38.7 42.8 23.5 24.2 24.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 23.9 24.1 25.4 -0.9 36.1 38.5 24.0 25.1 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 19.3 19.9 20.4 -0.4 43.0 45.3 19.7 20.2 21.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 24.5 24.6 25.1 -0.7 37.4 41.9 24.6 25.3 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 23.3 23.6 24.5 -1.3 30.5 32.4 23.9 24.9 25.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 24.0 24.4 25.4 -0.7 39.1 41.8 23.8 25.1 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 23.9 24.2 23.8 -0.7 37.1 40.9 24.1 24.6 25.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 24.2 24.2 23.8 -0.9 32.3 38.5 24.3 25.2 26.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 24.5 25.0 23.3 -0.6 38.7 43.4 25.0 25.5 25.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 23.8 24.3 24.4 -0.8 34.1 39.7 24.3 24.8 25.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 25.0 25.3 23.9 -1.1 30.0 35.2 25.4 25.9 26.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 18.9 19.2 21.4 -0.5 39.7 43.4 19.0 19.6 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 23.9 24.1 25.5 -0.9 35.8 38.5 24.1 25.0 25.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------