***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.09.2015.-20.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 21.7 23.0 23.7 -0.7 37.9 42.7 22.3 23.7 24.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 21.7 22.9 23.8 -0.7 41.6 42.7 22.0 23.6 24.9 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 22.7 22.9 23.7 -0.7 36.9 42.7 22.2 24.5 24.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 15.2 15.7 21.9 -0.9 36.2 39.4 15.5 16.6 17.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 25.2 24.1 22.1 -0.7 40.8 42.3 23.1 24.8 25.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 24.2 23.4 20.8 -0.1 47.4 48.3 22.3 23.6 24.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 64 36 0 100 21.6 22.9 23.7 -0.6 43.1 42.9 21.6 23.3 24.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 14.2 13.7 21.2 -0.1 46.9 48.6 12.2 13.9 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 24.9 24.2 22.6 -0.6 39.8 43.7 22.9 24.7 25.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 24.7 23.5 21.5 -0.4 42.2 45.3 22.8 24.3 24.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 22.5 24.3 22.1 -0.4 44.6 45.4 23.4 24.6 25.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 24.4 23.8 22.2 -0.1 48.5 48.6 22.3 23.9 25.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 25.4 24.6 21.7 -0.3 46.0 47.0 23.2 24.9 26.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 24.1 23.1 22.0 -0.7 40.3 42.9 22.6 23.5 24.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 23.0 23.7 22.3 -0.8 38.1 39.0 23.4 24.2 24.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 25.9 25.1 22.0 -0.4 42.9 45.1 24.3 25.3 26.0 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 20.5 21.9 23.0 -1.0 39.2 39.2 21.4 22.6 24.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 23.4 22.7 20.7 -0.5 40.6 44.4 22.0 23.0 24.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 21.6 22.9 23.9 -0.6 41.6 43.2 22.2 23.4 24.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 20.1 19.4 18.9 -0.3 44.2 47.0 17.8 19.7 20.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 24.9 24.1 23.2 -0.7 38.8 42.6 22.9 24.6 24.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 21.6 22.0 23.0 -1.0 38.8 39.7 21.3 23.5 25.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 24.0 22.7 23.8 -0.5 42.2 44.4 21.9 23.4 24.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 24.4 23.2 22.1 -0.6 39.3 43.3 22.7 23.9 24.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 24.3 23.2 22.0 -0.8 38.1 41.1 22.5 24.0 24.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 25.3 24.4 21.8 -0.3 44.7 46.6 23.0 24.8 25.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 22.2 23.3 22.8 -0.7 38.5 42.5 22.5 24.0 24.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 23.0 23.3 22.3 -0.7 37.6 40.4 23.3 24.0 25.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.7 18.9 19.8 -0.5 41.0 45.2 16.9 19.5 20.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 21.7 22.5 23.9 -0.6 40.2 43.2 21.9 23.5 24.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------