***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2015.-13.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 22.6 24.9 24.4 -0.9 44.1 44.1 24.0 25.2 26.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 22.8 25.0 24.4 -1.1 44.2 42.1 23.8 25.5 26.3 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 22.6 24.3 24.4 -1.0 42.0 43.4 23.9 25.1 25.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 14.9 16.7 22.8 -0.9 42.7 43.1 16.2 17.9 18.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 22.2 24.4 22.9 -0.8 43.0 44.8 24.0 25.3 26.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 21.7 22.8 21.3 -0.6 40.7 44.7 21.9 23.8 25.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 22.3 24.5 24.3 -1.0 45.7 42.7 23.6 25.4 25.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 11.1 13.9 21.9 -0.2 53.9 48.4 11.8 13.5 15.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 22.0 24.5 23.3 -0.7 44.2 45.7 23.7 24.9 25.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 69 31 0 100 21.6 24.0 22.1 -0.5 47.7 46.4 23.4 24.3 25.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 22.3 24.1 22.8 -0.5 44.7 46.1 23.5 25.0 26.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 20.8 23.3 23.0 -0.2 50.3 48.1 22.5 23.3 25.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 22.1 24.1 22.3 -0.6 41.0 45.3 23.5 24.6 26.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 22.4 24.2 22.5 -1.0 41.2 43.0 23.9 24.5 25.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 22.9 25.2 23.3 -0.9 44.4 42.5 24.2 25.5 26.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 22.7 24.9 22.7 -0.6 42.0 45.0 24.0 25.6 26.8 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 21.8 23.5 23.6 -1.4 39.7 38.9 23.2 24.4 26.0 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 21.1 23.1 21.2 -0.7 45.5 45.1 22.7 23.1 24.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 22.7 24.6 24.4 -1.1 43.2 42.5 23.4 25.2 26.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 68 32 0 100 17.0 19.7 19.5 -0.4 50.6 47.1 17.9 19.7 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 22.4 24.9 23.9 -0.8 43.7 44.7 23.8 25.5 25.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 22.5 23.8 23.6 -1.4 40.5 39.0 23.6 25.0 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 22.8 24.5 24.3 -0.9 43.8 43.8 24.0 25.3 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 22.3 24.0 22.6 -0.9 43.8 43.9 23.5 24.2 25.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 22.5 24.6 22.8 -0.9 41.5 43.4 23.6 25.2 26.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 22.6 24.3 22.5 -0.5 43.2 45.9 22.5 25.1 26.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 22.6 24.6 23.5 -0.9 43.0 43.8 23.7 25.1 26.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 23.0 24.7 23.2 -0.9 44.2 43.3 24.0 25.2 26.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 16.6 18.5 20.3 -0.6 46.5 45.5 17.5 18.7 19.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 22.6 25.0 24.5 -1.0 44.8 42.9 23.6 25.0 25.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------