***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2015.-06.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 25.5 24.7 26.5 0.1 51.5 51.9 23.6 24.7 26.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 23.3 25.8 26.4 -0.2 48.4 49.3 23.1 25.9 27.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 26.1 25.6 26.6 0.1 49.1 51.8 23.1 25.7 26.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 18.3 17.4 24.8 -0.2 46.1 49.1 16.8 17.7 18.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 26.0 25.7 25.2 0.3 55.1 53.9 23.9 25.4 26.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 24.7 23.8 23.3 0.1 49.1 52.6 23.1 23.9 25.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 23.2 25.5 26.4 -0.1 48.2 49.9 22.6 25.6 26.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 14.1 14.2 24.3 0.9 60.6 59.5 12.5 13.6 14.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 25.7 25.4 25.8 0.6 59.0 56.5 23.2 25.2 26.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 25.2 25.2 24.6 0.7 59.2 57.3 23.3 24.5 25.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 25.7 25.9 25.1 0.6 58.6 56.1 23.5 25.1 26.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 24.8 24.8 25.3 0.9 60.6 58.7 23.5 24.0 25.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 25.9 25.4 24.5 0.4 53.6 54.2 24.4 25.3 26.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 26.1 25.8 24.8 0.1 49.9 52.2 23.1 25.9 26.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 26.2 25.1 25.0 -0.6 43.1 45.8 24.6 25.6 26.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 26.6 26.1 24.8 0.3 51.9 53.6 24.7 25.9 27.4 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 22.6 23.5 25.6 -0.6 41.4 45.1 22.2 25.1 26.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 24.9 25.0 23.6 0.6 56.5 55.6 22.3 24.6 25.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 23.0 25.3 26.6 -0.1 49.1 50.1 22.5 25.5 26.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 20.0 20.5 21.7 0.5 55.8 55.8 18.8 19.4 21.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 25.8 25.4 26.3 0.3 54.9 54.3 23.2 25.2 26.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 22.8 24.3 25.5 -0.7 42.0 45.1 22.4 25.6 26.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 26.1 25.5 26.5 0.2 50.1 52.4 23.0 25.5 26.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 25.5 25.3 25.0 0.4 53.1 54.0 22.6 25.2 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 25.7 25.0 24.8 -0.1 49.2 50.5 24.1 25.0 26.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 23.7 25.1 24.6 0.2 50.8 52.8 24.5 25.0 26.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 25.8 25.5 25.5 0.1 50.8 51.4 23.1 25.3 26.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 26.3 25.0 25.1 -0.3 44.8 48.8 24.3 25.8 27.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 20.1 20.0 22.7 0.6 56.4 55.6 17.4 19.7 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 26.1 25.3 26.6 -0.1 48.8 50.3 22.5 25.5 26.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------