***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2015.-30.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 25.7 26.3 26.7 -1.7 33.2 33.9 26.3 27.0 27.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 25.4 25.3 26.6 -2.1 29.1 31.6 25.4 26.8 27.8 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 25.4 26.1 26.8 -1.9 33.7 33.2 26.1 26.9 28.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 74 26 0 100 19.3 19.0 23.9 -2.5 20.2 24.4 19.6 20.6 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 26.5 26.7 25.5 -1.6 30.7 34.6 27.0 27.8 28.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 76 24 0 100 25.1 24.7 22.5 -2.2 17.2 24.8 26.1 26.7 28.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 25.1 25.0 26.6 -2.0 32.1 33.1 25.1 26.6 27.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 15.2 15.9 23.8 -1.4 34.6 37.2 15.8 16.5 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 25.7 26.7 26.5 -1.3 36.9 38.1 26.5 27.1 27.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 25.6 26.7 24.6 -1.4 35.9 37.3 26.6 27.2 28.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 26.0 26.0 25.2 -1.6 27.6 33.8 26.7 27.8 28.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 25.3 26.1 24.8 -1.5 30.3 35.7 26.4 27.4 28.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 26.4 26.6 24.9 -1.6 23.4 33.1 26.8 28.0 29.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 25.3 25.5 25.4 -1.8 36.2 34.6 25.4 26.9 27.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 77 23 0 100 26.7 26.7 25.8 -2.6 20.3 22.7 27.0 28.4 29.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 71 29 0 100 27.1 27.1 25.1 -1.7 23.6 31.9 27.4 29.1 29.3 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 24.7 24.7 25.9 -2.3 27.2 30.0 24.9 26.1 26.9 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 24.5 25.6 23.4 -1.7 34.0 34.1 25.6 26.5 27.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 25.1 25.5 26.8 -2.0 31.9 32.8 25.5 26.5 27.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 20.4 21.7 21.6 -1.6 33.2 35.0 21.7 22.8 23.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 25.8 26.7 26.9 -1.6 34.5 35.8 26.4 27.1 28.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 25.2 25.2 26.0 -2.2 29.5 29.9 25.3 26.6 27.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 25.6 26.0 26.9 -1.6 38.0 36.6 25.3 27.2 27.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 24.9 25.8 25.3 -1.7 36.1 34.1 25.7 26.6 27.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 25.5 26.4 25.5 -1.8 29.9 32.0 26.6 27.2 28.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 26.3 26.2 24.3 -1.7 25.0 32.8 27.1 27.7 29.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 25.6 26.0 26.0 -1.7 32.6 33.6 26.0 27.1 27.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 77 23 0 100 26.5 26.1 24.8 -2.6 18.2 22.6 27.5 28.3 29.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 20.2 21.2 22.7 -1.6 33.8 34.8 21.1 21.9 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 25.5 25.1 26.7 -2.1 31.2 32.0 25.5 26.6 27.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------