***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2015.-20.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 11.9 12.3 15.7 -0.3 42.4 45.6 12.1 12.4 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 11.6 12.0 15.5 -0.4 41.4 43.5 11.8 12.3 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 13.8 14.2 15.6 -0.4 40.2 43.5 13.8 14.5 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 9.2 9.0 13.1 -0.7 29.5 34.0 9.2 10.1 10.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 10.6 10.8 13.1 -0.5 34.1 40.0 10.7 11.3 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 9.8 10.2 11.3 -0.4 31.8 39.2 10.2 10.3 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 12.0 12.5 15.5 -0.4 42.2 43.4 12.2 12.5 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 5.3 5.8 11.7 0.0 48.1 50.7 5.6 5.8 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 12.0 12.2 13.6 -0.2 40.8 45.7 12.1 12.4 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 11.7 12.1 12.1 -0.2 41.7 47.3 11.8 12.2 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 11.2 11.7 12.7 -0.4 34.7 41.2 11.6 11.9 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 9.8 10.1 12.5 -0.2 43.9 47.1 9.9 10.3 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 10.5 10.9 11.8 -0.5 31.7 37.3 11.0 11.3 11.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 12.2 12.4 13.6 -0.3 38.0 43.3 12.3 12.7 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 12.5 12.7 14.1 -0.7 26.3 31.4 12.8 13.1 13.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 12.0 12.2 12.4 -0.5 30.8 36.8 12.2 12.5 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 12.2 12.6 14.8 -0.4 41.4 41.4 12.4 12.8 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 10.1 10.5 11.5 -0.2 41.1 45.5 10.4 10.6 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 61 39 0 100 11.8 12.1 15.5 -0.3 40.9 43.9 12.0 12.4 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 6.4 7.0 9.9 -0.2 45.9 46.1 6.8 7.0 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 11.5 11.8 14.9 -0.3 41.3 44.8 11.7 12.0 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 11.4 11.4 14.9 -0.5 36.7 38.2 11.3 11.9 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 11.2 11.6 15.3 -0.3 42.2 45.7 11.5 11.7 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 11.6 11.9 13.5 -0.3 39.1 44.0 11.8 12.0 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 11.8 12.0 14.3 -0.4 38.0 42.5 12.0 12.1 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 10.8 11.0 11.9 -0.5 30.9 36.4 11.1 11.3 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 11.8 12.1 14.9 -0.3 41.6 44.3 11.9 12.4 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 60 40 0 100 10.5 10.3 13.4 -0.8 27.8 32.3 10.5 10.9 11.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 9.2 9.6 11.0 -0.1 43.2 47.2 9.3 9.9 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 12.1 12.5 15.7 -0.4 40.3 43.4 12.4 12.7 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------