***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.09.2015.-13.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 10.1 11.3 15.0 -0.5 45.6 44.2 9.6 11.4 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 9.7 10.5 14.8 -0.6 43.1 43.6 10.1 10.9 12.5 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 12.2 13.9 14.9 -0.5 45.9 44.2 12.9 14.1 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 7.8 9.3 12.8 -0.5 46.0 43.6 8.5 9.4 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 8.8 9.6 12.5 -0.4 47.3 45.1 8.9 9.7 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 8.2 9.7 11.0 -0.2 47.2 47.2 8.5 9.7 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 10.3 11.4 14.8 -0.6 42.8 43.4 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 3.3 5.4 11.0 -0.1 51.3 49.1 4.6 5.4 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 12.0 11.5 12.9 -0.3 49.0 46.6 10.4 11.5 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 10.0 11.0 11.5 -0.2 49.5 47.2 10.3 11.1 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 11.2 10.2 12.1 -0.4 46.5 45.9 9.8 10.5 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 8.0 9.0 12.0 -0.1 48.3 48.1 8.0 9.2 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 8.8 9.8 11.3 -0.4 42.8 44.3 8.9 10.3 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 10.4 11.6 12.8 -0.5 45.9 43.9 11.3 12.0 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 11.3 12.2 13.6 -0.4 47.4 45.5 10.9 12.4 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 10.3 11.0 11.9 -0.4 45.1 44.5 10.7 11.4 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 10.8 11.8 14.1 -0.7 42.2 41.3 11.4 12.0 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 8.7 9.6 10.9 -0.3 47.0 45.9 8.8 10.0 10.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 10.2 11.5 14.8 -0.5 45.2 44.0 10.5 11.7 12.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 4.7 5.6 9.1 -0.3 48.0 45.3 5.0 5.7 7.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 9.9 10.7 14.1 -0.4 48.6 45.7 9.9 10.9 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 9.6 10.4 14.2 -0.7 43.3 41.0 10.1 10.9 12.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 9.2 10.8 14.6 -0.4 47.8 44.9 9.9 10.9 12.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 9.9 11.0 12.8 -0.4 47.8 45.1 10.6 11.3 12.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 9.6 10.3 13.5 -0.6 43.6 43.3 9.7 10.8 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 9.3 9.8 11.5 -0.4 41.5 45.3 9.5 10.3 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 9.4 10.5 14.1 -0.5 42.9 44.0 9.6 11.3 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 8.7 9.4 13.2 -0.4 46.6 45.2 8.8 9.9 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 7.5 9.1 10.2 -0.3 47.4 45.4 8.7 9.2 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 10.3 11.4 15.0 -0.6 43.6 43.9 10.5 11.9 12.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------