***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.08.2015.-06.09.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 13.0 13.0 16.7 0.4 58.9 58.2 12.1 12.7 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 12.7 13.0 16.6 0.4 57.5 57.8 12.0 12.6 13.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 15.4 15.3 16.5 0.3 55.3 56.0 13.9 15.2 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 10.2 9.4 13.9 -0.3 43.8 45.2 8.9 9.8 10.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 11.8 11.6 13.8 0.0 48.6 50.2 11.0 11.6 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 9.9 10.6 12.0 -0.3 41.0 45.9 10.2 11.0 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 13.4 13.4 16.6 0.4 57.6 57.4 12.3 13.2 13.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 6.1 6.6 12.5 0.5 60.4 58.9 5.4 5.8 6.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 13.0 13.0 14.3 0.2 53.8 54.7 12.1 12.9 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 12.7 12.8 12.8 0.3 55.8 55.1 11.9 12.5 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 12.4 12.2 13.4 0.0 50.8 51.2 11.7 12.2 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 11.1 11.0 13.4 0.3 56.9 55.9 10.1 10.8 11.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 12.1 11.8 12.4 -0.2 44.8 47.1 11.2 11.9 12.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 13.7 13.9 14.4 0.3 54.0 56.4 12.6 13.6 14.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 13.9 13.1 14.5 -0.6 38.1 40.6 12.9 13.6 14.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 13.5 13.1 13.0 -0.3 43.4 46.3 12.6 13.2 13.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 13.6 13.7 15.9 0.4 58.4 57.7 12.4 13.5 13.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 11.6 11.5 12.3 0.3 55.9 55.6 10.5 11.3 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 13.2 13.2 16.5 0.4 56.2 58.0 12.2 13.1 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 7.7 7.9 10.8 0.4 57.6 56.6 6.3 7.4 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 12.5 12.4 15.7 0.3 56.7 56.4 11.7 12.3 13.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 12.9 12.9 15.9 0.3 54.2 56.3 11.8 12.8 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 13.2 13.1 16.2 0.4 54.5 58.4 11.4 13.1 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 13.1 12.9 14.2 0.3 53.8 55.6 12.2 12.9 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 13.0 13.0 15.0 0.2 53.4 54.2 12.0 12.8 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 12.1 11.7 12.7 -0.2 47.0 47.1 11.2 11.8 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 13.0 13.1 15.8 0.4 57.3 57.1 11.6 12.6 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 11.5 10.6 14.2 -0.5 39.1 42.6 10.6 11.1 12.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 10.3 10.2 11.8 0.4 57.9 57.6 9.2 9.9 10.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 13.3 13.1 16.8 0.4 56.7 57.1 12.3 13.1 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------