***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 20.08.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.08.2015.-30.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 13.6 13.8 17.0 -0.9 38.6 37.0 13.5 14.4 15.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 12.8 13.3 16.5 -1.1 29.7 32.0 13.5 13.9 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 15.4 15.2 16.9 -1.1 30.0 32.2 15.3 16.2 17.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 81 19 0 100 10.3 9.9 13.9 -1.7 14.2 19.2 10.8 11.8 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 11.4 10.7 14.5 -1.3 19.9 24.9 12.3 13.3 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 86 14 0 100 10.6 10.4 12.2 -1.4 16.4 20.4 11.8 12.4 12.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 13.3 13.3 16.6 -1.1 32.1 32.0 13.5 14.3 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 6.5 7.0 12.9 -0.7 35.4 36.5 6.8 7.7 8.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 13.2 13.5 15.3 -0.9 34.6 34.2 13.4 14.6 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 13.2 13.0 13.7 -0.8 34.5 35.6 12.9 14.2 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 12.3 11.9 14.1 -1.2 21.7 25.4 12.7 13.8 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 11.0 10.9 13.5 -0.9 28.3 30.7 11.1 12.3 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 76 24 0 100 12.0 11.9 13.1 -1.3 19.5 22.1 12.4 13.4 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 13.6 13.8 15.2 -1.0 27.7 31.7 13.8 14.5 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 87 13 0 100 13.6 13.1 15.6 -1.7 13.4 17.5 14.8 15.4 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 81 19 0 100 13.1 12.7 13.7 -1.4 16.0 20.3 14.0 14.6 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 13.4 13.7 16.0 -1.0 30.9 31.5 13.8 14.4 15.6 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 11.5 11.4 12.8 -0.9 28.7 31.6 11.7 12.6 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 64 36 0 100 13.2 13.1 16.6 -1.1 28.7 32.1 13.5 14.3 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 7.7 7.9 11.0 -0.7 37.1 36.4 7.8 8.6 9.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 12.9 12.9 16.6 -1.0 30.7 33.3 13.1 14.4 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 12.5 12.7 16.2 -1.3 25.0 27.0 12.9 13.6 14.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 13.0 13.0 16.7 -1.0 31.6 34.0 13.0 13.8 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 13.3 13.1 14.9 -1.1 25.1 30.2 13.4 14.3 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 12.9 13.2 16.0 -1.0 32.0 33.0 13.2 14.0 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 80 20 0 100 12.4 12.1 12.5 -1.5 15.0 19.3 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 13.0 13.6 16.3 -1.0 35.1 34.1 13.5 14.5 15.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 86 14 0 100 11.1 10.1 14.4 -1.8 12.3 16.4 12.4 13.1 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 10.9 10.8 12.3 -0.7 37.0 37.5 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 13.2 13.3 16.8 -1.1 30.6 32.1 13.5 14.3 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------