***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.08.2016.-18.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 60.6 68.2 43.0 124.3 67.5 56.4 29.7 55.9 66.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 56.2 65.9 41.1 116.8 67.5 55.8 27.8 52.0 63.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 61.4 71.8 44.8 127.1 69.7 58.3 36.0 57.1 70.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 65.7 87.5 45.7 133.4 74.0 61.9 41.1 59.4 78.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 69.3 83.7 45.6 147.2 78.2 64.8 36.5 44.7 66.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 59.9 65.4 51.3 135.7 75.2 63.4 25.6 44.3 55.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 47.4 56.8 40.4 113.3 63.1 55.3 24.5 38.8 60.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 37 63 100 104.9 110.8 50.5 134.8 77.0 61.2 61.6 82.2 100.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 64.2 68.2 47.1 145.1 75.6 65.3 36.1 50.4 61.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 69.7 78.3 53.1 138.4 76.6 62.5 40.6 54.8 68.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 62.3 73.0 46.9 148.1 82.6 65.1 35.2 47.6 58.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 60.6 74.6 43.0 139.2 77.9 63.3 31.8 37.6 59.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 36 64 100 58.1 67.5 46.9 145.4 78.9 64.8 38.7 44.5 57.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 75.6 108.8 57.5 134.3 75.0 60.3 41.4 66.5 91.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 33.8 49.9 40.6 134.1 77.1 62.0 20.3 29.6 42.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 37 63 100 57.9 64.9 44.1 142.9 80.2 64.4 35.0 50.5 57.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 55.1 59.0 40.0 108.7 61.1 54.4 34.4 49.5 62.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 73.8 79.5 59.8 138.1 78.1 63.0 41.3 64.6 76.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 58.0 72.1 42.7 120.1 68.2 56.3 30.4 52.6 68.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 80.6 94.0 60.1 133.2 75.9 62.4 52.4 76.3 83.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 57.9 71.1 42.5 130.3 68.9 60.3 38.1 52.7 69.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 61.6 52.0 41.9 107.8 57.5 52.3 32.4 49.2 71.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 56.3 77.3 45.8 127.5 71.4 58.1 29.4 50.1 74.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 70.1 92.9 54.9 137.5 76.0 61.5 38.0 63.0 83.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 59.8 71.9 45.3 128.0 67.9 58.4 44.7 54.9 67.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 40.7 42.8 38.1 122.4 69.3 59.4 28.7 35.8 40.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 57.4 67.2 45.0 122.4 65.8 56.3 34.1 51.3 67.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 44.0 55.6 43.3 134.8 76.9 62.3 33.7 40.5 48.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 107.3 141.8 61.7 136.9 76.6 63.1 65.6 97.3 109.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 51.2 56.4 42.5 119.0 66.3 55.8 28.8 46.7 56.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------