***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.09.2016.-18.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 14.9 25.5 11.3 134.5 75.7 59.9 3.8 11.5 20.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 12.2 19.8 10.5 126.0 76.0 60.6 4.0 7.5 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 13.8 29.7 12.0 142.4 78.1 58.9 2.6 9.6 14.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 4.1 28.6 12.4 129.0 77.5 57.6 2.7 8.6 13.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 13.6 26.0 11.1 121.4 75.8 55.5 3.0 9.3 23.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 6.9 17.3 13.1 118.1 74.2 58.0 1.4 3.8 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 12.5 19.5 10.4 120.5 73.6 59.8 3.2 7.1 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 21.3 30.7 11.3 106.3 71.7 54.9 8.7 17.9 27.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 13.7 24.6 12.0 126.3 75.1 57.1 2.8 10.3 14.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 15.5 19.8 12.5 115.1 74.4 55.6 5.2 12.6 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.8 19.0 10.0 106.8 75.3 55.9 1.6 7.9 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.2 11.8 9.7 100.8 71.3 54.9 2.6 8.3 9.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 2.4 16.5 10.5 99.3 73.0 52.2 2.1 5.6 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 17.7 32.1 15.8 144.0 74.6 59.5 3.5 12.4 22.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 6.7 19.5 12.3 136.4 80.5 57.8 1.4 3.8 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 2.6 15.4 10.4 105.8 74.6 55.4 2.6 5.3 7.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 11.6 24.8 10.3 113.0 74.9 59.2 3.2 7.8 19.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 16.6 30.3 14.5 126.8 74.1 56.9 6.9 10.6 18.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 12.2 23.9 11.4 135.6 77.4 59.9 3.5 8.5 14.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 17.0 22.1 13.5 114.2 68.0 56.9 7.8 12.4 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 14.5 30.1 10.9 127.5 73.5 57.7 2.6 8.8 20.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 20.7 26.0 11.8 121.3 74.6 58.5 2.2 7.8 16.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 11.5 20.9 12.4 142.4 77.2 59.4 4.7 8.9 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 14.8 32.0 14.4 140.3 74.8 57.6 3.8 9.5 23.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 18.0 32.3 12.0 131.0 74.5 57.7 2.2 12.5 19.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 7.1 15.3 9.1 94.1 74.0 54.4 1.2 3.5 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 13.9 27.4 11.8 130.8 72.7 59.4 1.8 8.9 20.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 9.1 16.3 12.0 119.9 76.0 56.6 2.3 6.5 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 40.8 40.5 14.8 127.3 73.7 58.0 10.8 17.4 33.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 11.9 18.6 10.9 128.0 74.3 60.1 4.3 9.1 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------