***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.09.2016.-11.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 6.3 7.4 12.1 114.3 68.3 52.5 0.6 2.5 7.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 1.5 6.6 11.3 109.0 66.4 50.0 1.4 3.1 6.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 6.3 5.2 12.1 107.4 65.7 50.9 1.5 2.8 5.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 5.9 20.2 10.4 105.4 66.8 52.5 3.2 12.1 20.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 2.7 13.2 9.8 106.7 69.5 51.6 2.5 5.9 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 3.2 7.7 9.4 89.8 62.4 48.6 1.6 7.0 9.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 1.8 9.2 10.6 100.5 66.4 49.1 1.1 4.4 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 8.8 23.7 9.7 99.4 66.5 50.3 8.6 17.7 23.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.0 10.9 10.1 104.1 66.9 49.8 1.6 6.1 10.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 3.5 12.2 10.7 97.8 64.7 49.6 3.2 7.3 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 7.7 15.3 9.2 107.3 71.5 53.5 0.7 4.4 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.5 12.4 8.5 109.8 72.5 55.7 5.5 9.3 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 2.8 11.1 8.5 99.0 66.5 51.1 2.8 6.3 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 6.8 10.6 16.3 119.0 69.6 52.2 2.1 3.9 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 0.8 7.1 8.6 99.3 70.2 51.9 0.3 1.9 5.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 3.4 12.6 8.3 101.6 68.6 51.6 1.5 7.3 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 7.0 7.8 10.3 94.6 65.5 47.3 1.1 2.6 8.0 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 5.3 12.8 13.5 104.2 64.0 51.0 2.9 10.6 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 1.7 7.0 11.6 112.6 66.8 50.2 1.3 3.7 6.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 6.3 16.7 11.5 91.0 60.8 46.1 4.8 13.4 20.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 7.0 7.3 9.4 94.8 60.5 48.9 1.8 5.2 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 3.1 12.8 11.6 101.0 65.4 46.4 1.8 6.6 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 5.9 4.8 12.3 116.3 68.1 51.0 1.0 2.8 4.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 7.8 11.8 14.2 111.4 68.8 52.7 1.5 4.6 10.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 7.3 6.4 10.2 97.6 62.9 49.1 0.9 3.8 7.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 2.3 11.5 7.9 99.2 66.4 51.6 1.9 5.3 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 5.8 7.3 11.4 105.5 62.9 49.7 1.5 2.7 9.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 1.2 11.3 9.0 101.1 66.0 50.8 0.9 2.7 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 19.3 20.4 14.5 107.8 66.6 52.6 9.7 13.9 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 1.1 4.9 12.0 113.8 66.1 50.5 1.3 2.8 4.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------