***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.08.2016.-04.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 10.4 7.6 5.5 61.9 54.8 46.5 3.8 7.2 15.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 6.0 15.7 8.3 90.2 65.0 47.4 4.9 12.4 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 15.7 16.9 6.6 76.4 61.7 46.1 5.6 13.8 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 12.4 8.6 5.6 76.6 56.3 43.9 3.2 7.6 17.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 3.7 11.7 6.1 86.4 60.5 43.9 3.3 8.0 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 2.8 8.4 6.7 77.7 53.7 42.3 2.7 6.3 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.6 11.0 7.9 85.0 62.7 45.9 5.2 6.6 11.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 8.3 18.6 6.9 79.3 54.1 41.3 8.3 17.6 28.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 5.0 14.8 6.4 85.9 63.5 44.3 6.9 10.1 16.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 4.9 11.1 6.3 74.6 54.2 40.7 6.1 10.1 19.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.6 15.1 7.6 98.4 62.2 49.3 4.0 6.9 16.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 4.9 18.8 6.8 95.3 60.7 46.9 2.1 10.3 20.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 14.2 18.0 5.8 78.0 57.9 41.9 3.4 9.7 21.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 7.0 14.2 8.7 81.1 61.5 46.3 8.1 12.8 19.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 6.5 6.1 4.9 68.7 59.3 44.0 0.2 3.6 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.0 13.1 6.0 82.7 60.4 44.1 2.5 6.2 17.0 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 5.7 14.4 9.2 96.9 65.6 48.4 7.5 9.6 14.5 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 4.5 14.0 8.3 83.8 59.4 43.2 4.4 11.7 16.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 6.5 14.5 7.9 83.4 64.4 48.4 7.2 11.1 14.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 5.9 15.9 7.4 68.0 49.8 36.2 9.0 15.9 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 8.5 11.1 6.2 78.3 62.6 46.0 4.1 6.8 11.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 10.1 17.3 9.4 94.6 66.9 48.3 11.8 14.0 16.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 15.7 16.8 7.7 80.6 63.1 49.5 7.2 13.1 20.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 5.8 15.8 7.7 79.9 60.7 45.3 5.1 12.0 18.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 3.8 10.0 5.8 58.3 54.0 40.4 1.8 8.9 14.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 10.4 14.1 6.7 88.9 63.2 46.9 0.5 6.9 16.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 12.5 11.6 6.0 59.6 53.1 43.4 1.5 10.5 14.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 2.3 7.4 4.9 74.0 56.9 42.8 2.1 4.9 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 7.4 22.0 9.8 88.4 59.4 43.9 8.5 17.8 23.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 5.2 11.4 7.7 83.2 62.7 45.9 5.1 10.2 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------