***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.08.2016.-28.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 12.3 24.7 14.1 210.1 84.3 65.5 0.6 3.1 6.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.7 15.7 11.0 151.1 77.5 58.4 1.6 3.8 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 13.7 21.0 14.2 204.1 84.1 63.4 2.1 6.8 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 18.2 38.7 17.2 243.7 86.7 70.0 1.7 6.5 18.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 15.9 27.0 18.6 333.7 90.9 73.4 1.7 7.4 17.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 25 75 100 14.8 22.2 22.1 291.4 89.0 74.9 0.8 5.3 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 6.8 19.3 11.5 159.9 78.4 61.7 0.4 3.5 12.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 28.1 57.7 22.6 272.4 91.3 69.8 9.2 18.1 23.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 17.3 41.3 18.7 316.4 92.4 72.8 3.6 8.3 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 20.9 48.6 23.6 294.3 91.7 70.4 4.3 11.4 18.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 14.6 33.9 20.0 346.1 92.6 73.6 3.4 8.5 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 11.8 22.9 18.0 286.2 91.1 71.4 2.4 5.8 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 27 73 100 16.8 38.0 22.0 400.6 93.9 77.9 1.0 8.2 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.8 58.5 16.8 223.5 88.0 61.9 5.5 12.9 20.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 7.8 17.8 14.8 284.5 88.8 71.5 0.5 1.5 6.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 26 74 100 12.8 45.5 19.3 352.9 92.2 76.0 1.5 5.6 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 10.4 25.8 10.3 140.2 76.1 54.3 2.2 4.8 19.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 17.8 42.5 23.5 260.1 90.7 68.7 5.6 9.3 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.1 23.8 11.8 159.0 79.4 57.0 1.7 8.5 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 27.6 45.5 27.6 289.4 91.5 71.7 9.4 14.2 19.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 17.0 32.0 16.1 257.4 88.9 69.9 1.8 7.7 17.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 3.0 25.3 9.2 118.7 71.9 50.2 3.4 6.8 17.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 3.5 30.3 13.4 189.4 83.8 58.5 1.4 7.4 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 23.6 39.3 18.6 257.9 91.0 66.1 4.9 9.0 20.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 17.4 34.5 17.3 294.6 91.5 72.0 1.7 6.1 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 16.3 27.3 14.4 242.0 86.7 69.6 1.1 5.6 18.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 21.6 36.5 15.8 232.0 87.1 67.7 2.9 7.4 17.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 12.5 28.2 17.4 271.9 88.4 72.1 0.3 3.9 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 25.4 59.6 22.7 246.9 89.1 67.2 7.4 13.3 23.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 6.1 16.9 11.9 160.9 78.1 60.5 1.0 3.1 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------