***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.08.2016.-18.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 24.4 24.5 25.6 -1.2 32.5 33.2 24.5 25.2 26.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 25.9 24.9 25.8 -1.1 35.4 36.8 24.7 25.6 26.5 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 24.7 24.7 25.9 -1.1 32.5 34.9 24.7 25.7 26.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 17.9 18.3 24.0 -0.7 41.0 41.8 17.8 18.8 19.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 25.3 25.2 24.4 -1.1 34.2 35.8 25.1 26.4 26.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 24.1 24.3 22.3 -0.7 35.3 39.1 24.2 24.9 25.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 25.4 24.5 25.7 -1.1 36.5 36.5 24.3 25.2 26.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 67 33 0 100 13.4 14.0 22.6 -0.9 34.3 38.2 13.9 14.5 15.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 24.7 24.9 24.8 -1.0 35.2 36.9 24.9 25.9 26.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 24.6 24.6 23.2 -1.0 34.4 37.1 24.5 25.7 26.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 25.0 24.7 24.4 -0.9 34.6 37.9 24.6 26.2 26.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 24.0 24.0 23.8 -0.9 34.2 38.8 23.9 25.3 26.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 25.2 25.4 23.7 -0.9 34.3 37.8 25.4 26.2 27.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 24.4 24.9 24.3 -0.9 36.2 38.8 24.7 25.4 26.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 26.7 26.5 25.9 -0.3 49.5 47.1 25.6 26.5 27.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 25.9 25.8 24.2 -0.8 35.0 39.6 25.7 27.0 27.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 24.9 24.3 25.7 -0.7 39.2 41.5 24.1 24.6 25.6 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 23.8 23.9 22.5 -1.0 36.5 37.6 23.7 24.7 25.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 25.5 24.6 26.0 -0.9 37.7 38.8 24.5 25.1 26.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 19.6 20.1 20.5 -0.8 35.5 39.4 19.9 20.6 21.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 24.9 24.8 25.5 -1.2 30.8 33.4 24.8 25.9 26.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 25.6 24.8 25.8 -0.6 40.9 42.7 24.5 25.3 26.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 25.5 25.0 26.2 -0.6 44.4 43.5 24.6 25.3 26.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 24.3 24.7 24.3 -0.9 37.8 38.3 24.5 25.0 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 24.9 24.5 24.3 -1.2 31.0 33.9 24.6 26.1 26.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 25.0 25.3 23.4 -0.9 34.7 37.1 25.1 25.7 26.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 24.4 24.6 24.9 -1.1 33.3 34.9 24.6 25.4 26.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 26.7 26.2 24.8 -0.5 43.1 43.9 25.8 26.5 27.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 19.2 19.5 21.7 -1.0 35.6 37.6 19.3 19.8 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 24.4 24.5 25.7 -1.2 32.5 34.0 24.5 25.4 26.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------