***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.09.2016.-18.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 22.5 22.9 23.4 -1.3 38.6 38.8 21.8 24.7 25.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 22.2 23.2 23.5 -1.2 35.9 40.2 23.0 24.7 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 25.2 24.0 23.8 -1.1 40.5 40.4 23.1 24.9 25.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 14.9 15.9 21.9 -0.9 37.0 42.1 15.4 17.3 19.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 23.1 23.5 22.2 -1.1 36.8 40.5 23.0 25.5 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 24.7 24.1 20.5 -0.6 45.3 45.9 23.0 24.4 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 21.8 23.2 23.5 -1.2 37.7 39.7 22.9 24.0 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 12.1 13.5 20.7 -0.8 41.2 42.9 12.3 14.1 14.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 25.5 24.1 22.3 -1.1 39.3 40.5 23.0 25.1 26.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 25.0 23.9 21.2 -1.0 38.8 41.7 23.3 24.6 25.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 25.6 23.6 22.1 -0.9 37.7 42.0 23.4 25.2 26.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 22.7 23.8 21.9 -0.8 41.3 42.6 22.3 24.8 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 26.0 24.5 21.3 -0.9 39.1 42.5 23.7 25.6 26.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 24.9 23.9 21.8 -1.2 39.9 41.1 23.3 24.5 25.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 23.2 24.4 23.1 -0.6 41.3 44.7 23.2 25.4 26.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 26.6 24.5 21.9 -0.8 38.2 42.7 23.6 26.3 27.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 24.1 22.9 23.4 -1.0 39.2 41.3 21.6 23.6 24.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 24.2 23.2 20.5 -1.1 39.2 42.0 22.5 23.7 24.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 21.9 23.2 23.7 -1.1 38.2 41.0 23.2 24.2 25.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 20.4 19.8 18.5 -0.7 42.9 44.2 18.2 20.2 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 25.3 23.5 23.1 -1.2 39.1 39.6 23.1 25.0 26.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 21.9 23.4 23.3 -1.1 38.7 41.0 22.7 24.3 25.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 22.2 23.5 23.7 -1.0 42.9 42.3 23.0 24.5 25.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 24.9 23.4 22.0 -1.1 40.1 41.7 22.9 24.6 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 22.7 22.6 21.9 -1.2 36.9 39.6 22.0 24.6 25.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 25.4 24.5 21.8 -0.5 44.2 45.4 24.1 24.9 26.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 22.6 23.0 22.6 -1.2 37.6 39.6 22.3 24.6 25.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 23.5 24.3 22.4 -0.7 39.9 43.4 23.7 25.4 26.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 20.0 18.6 19.7 -1.0 40.3 42.3 17.5 19.6 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 21.8 23.3 23.5 -1.3 35.1 39.4 23.2 24.3 25.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------