***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.08.2016.-04.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 26.7 27.0 27.4 0.2 54.1 52.9 24.3 26.3 27.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 26.3 26.0 27.7 0.5 54.0 55.3 24.4 25.8 27.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 26.1 26.4 27.9 0.5 55.4 54.2 24.5 25.5 27.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 17.2 20.1 25.8 0.8 62.0 58.3 17.1 19.1 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 27.3 27.1 26.4 0.4 57.5 54.2 24.7 26.9 27.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 26.3 26.2 24.0 0.4 54.2 53.1 23.7 26.0 26.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 26.1 26.4 27.5 0.4 54.6 55.0 24.2 25.7 27.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 14.9 15.3 24.6 0.6 57.9 55.9 13.4 14.4 15.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 26.5 26.9 27.0 0.6 58.7 55.7 24.3 26.1 27.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 26.2 26.3 25.3 0.6 59.2 55.6 24.0 25.8 26.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 26.6 26.5 26.6 0.5 56.9 54.9 24.3 26.2 27.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 25.8 26.2 25.8 0.6 56.4 55.2 24.1 25.3 26.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 26.8 26.7 25.8 0.4 52.8 52.9 24.6 26.3 27.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 26.2 26.1 26.6 0.9 59.8 58.3 24.0 25.5 26.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 27.0 27.6 27.9 1.0 64.5 60.2 25.3 26.6 27.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 27.7 28.1 26.2 0.6 56.6 55.2 25.2 27.2 28.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 25.8 26.2 27.6 0.9 58.8 58.7 23.5 25.5 26.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 25.4 25.3 24.6 0.8 61.6 57.2 23.2 25.0 26.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 26.3 26.0 28.0 0.7 56.9 57.0 23.8 25.8 26.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 21.2 21.8 22.6 0.8 60.0 57.6 19.5 20.7 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 24.4 26.5 27.6 0.3 53.9 53.2 24.2 26.4 27.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 26.3 27.0 27.8 1.0 61.4 60.0 23.7 25.8 27.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 26.0 27.1 28.4 1.2 64.0 60.5 23.7 25.4 27.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 23.7 26.0 26.6 0.9 62.7 58.0 23.7 25.5 26.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 26.9 26.7 26.2 0.2 54.3 52.7 24.5 26.4 27.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 26.8 26.6 25.1 0.3 52.2 52.4 24.3 26.4 27.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 26.5 26.5 26.7 0.3 55.4 54.0 24.2 26.1 27.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 27.4 27.9 26.8 0.9 63.5 58.8 25.1 27.0 27.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 20.3 21.0 23.9 0.8 61.8 57.6 18.9 19.7 21.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 26.1 25.9 27.6 0.3 53.1 53.3 24.0 25.7 27.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------