***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.08.2016.-28.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 78 22 0 100 25.9 25.1 25.4 -3.8 12.8 18.8 27.1 28.2 29.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 74 26 0 100 26.0 25.3 26.1 -3.6 17.0 20.9 26.5 28.1 29.1 30 Becej 27400G00 76 24 0 100 25.7 24.7 25.5 -4.1 13.6 17.6 26.5 28.4 29.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 76 24 0 100 19.2 18.7 23.1 -3.4 16.1 22.4 20.3 21.0 22.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 78 22 0 100 26.8 25.8 23.6 -4.3 10.5 16.5 27.2 28.9 30.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 82 18 0 100 25.4 24.3 21.3 -3.8 11.9 17.9 26.1 27.8 29.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 75 25 0 100 25.5 24.9 26.0 -3.5 18.1 21.0 26.1 27.7 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 80 20 0 100 14.9 13.6 21.2 -4.4 9.1 15.5 15.6 17.1 17.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 77 23 0 100 26.0 25.3 24.6 -4.0 12.5 18.5 26.7 28.4 29.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 78 22 0 100 26.2 25.0 22.2 -4.4 9.8 16.2 26.7 28.2 29.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 78 22 0 100 26.7 25.2 23.8 -4.3 9.3 16.5 27.3 28.6 29.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 79 21 0 100 26.0 24.4 22.5 -4.3 10.0 16.2 26.5 28.3 29.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 83 17 0 100 26.7 25.7 23.4 -4.0 10.0 16.7 27.7 28.8 30.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 74 26 0 100 25.6 24.7 24.4 -3.8 14.5 19.9 26.7 27.9 28.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 26.8 26.7 26.5 -2.7 21.5 28.0 27.2 28.4 30.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 79 21 0 100 27.5 26.1 23.6 -4.0 10.8 17.7 28.3 29.3 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 25.3 24.6 26.2 -3.0 20.6 25.5 26.1 27.4 28.2 30 Palic 37000G16 75 25 0 100 24.9 24.0 21.3 -4.4 10.1 16.6 25.9 27.0 28.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 25.7 24.9 26.2 -3.5 17.6 22.3 26.3 27.7 28.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 78 22 0 100 21.1 20.3 19.2 -4.4 9.1 16.3 22.0 22.9 23.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 83 17 0 100 25.7 24.8 25.2 -4.3 11.1 16.2 26.8 28.5 29.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 26.0 25.4 26.4 -2.8 21.4 27.3 26.4 27.7 29.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 26.1 25.3 26.3 -3.1 21.1 26.3 26.3 28.0 28.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 74 26 0 100 25.3 24.3 24.0 -4.0 12.4 18.5 26.6 27.5 28.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 81 19 0 100 25.9 25.2 24.2 -4.0 12.7 17.8 27.0 28.5 29.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 87 13 0 100 26.4 25.7 21.8 -4.5 8.0 13.5 27.4 28.6 29.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 78 22 0 100 25.8 25.2 24.9 -3.6 14.2 20.0 26.0 27.9 29.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 75 25 0 100 27.1 26.5 24.5 -3.3 17.0 23.3 27.4 29.0 30.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 76 24 0 100 20.6 19.4 20.6 -4.4 9.7 16.5 21.5 22.8 23.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 77 23 0 100 25.8 25.1 25.8 -3.8 14.9 18.7 26.4 28.0 29.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------