***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.08.2016.-18.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 12.8 12.5 16.0 -0.5 39.3 40.2 12.5 12.6 13.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 12.6 12.5 15.7 -0.3 48.7 44.7 12.0 12.6 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 15.0 14.4 16.3 -0.4 40.8 41.3 14.2 14.9 15.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 10.6 10.6 14.0 0.0 55.9 51.6 9.5 10.5 10.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 11.5 11.3 14.3 -0.2 47.5 46.4 11.1 11.4 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 10.6 10.6 12.2 0.0 51.2 51.6 10.1 10.5 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 13.0 12.9 15.9 -0.4 48.3 43.5 12.5 12.9 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 6.2 6.1 12.3 0.0 51.7 52.2 5.8 6.1 6.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 12.8 12.7 14.5 -0.1 48.7 48.3 12.5 12.7 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 12.4 12.4 13.0 0.0 50.6 50.4 12.2 12.4 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 12.1 12.1 14.0 0.0 52.5 50.7 11.7 12.0 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 10.6 10.5 13.1 -0.1 49.7 50.2 10.0 10.5 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 11.5 11.4 12.6 -0.1 46.9 49.2 11.1 11.4 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 13.1 12.9 14.2 -0.2 48.5 45.9 12.7 13.0 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 13.6 13.8 15.7 0.2 59.6 56.7 13.0 13.6 14.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 12.9 12.8 13.4 -0.1 49.4 50.1 12.3 12.8 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 13.1 13.0 15.7 -0.1 50.6 49.6 12.8 13.0 13.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 85 15 100 10.9 10.8 12.4 -0.1 50.6 49.4 10.5 10.8 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 12.9 12.7 15.9 -0.3 48.0 44.8 12.5 12.8 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 7.3 7.2 10.4 0.0 49.2 49.9 6.8 7.3 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 12.3 12.3 15.6 -0.4 43.5 42.9 12.2 12.3 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 12.3 12.3 15.7 -0.2 47.8 46.4 11.9 12.3 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 12.2 12.0 16.0 -0.2 48.5 46.4 11.8 12.1 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 12.5 12.3 14.3 -0.1 49.1 48.0 12.0 12.3 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 12.5 12.3 14.9 -0.5 43.8 41.4 12.2 12.4 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 11.7 11.5 12.2 -0.2 43.8 45.2 11.2 11.6 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 12.9 12.6 15.5 -0.4 43.3 42.3 12.2 12.8 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 11.4 11.5 14.6 0.1 57.5 54.7 10.6 11.2 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 10.2 10.0 11.7 -0.1 49.5 49.0 9.6 10.0 10.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 13.2 13.0 15.9 -0.5 43.7 41.1 12.8 13.1 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------