***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.09.2016.-18.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 10.9 11.4 14.3 -0.4 39.6 45.5 11.2 11.9 13.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 10.0 10.5 13.9 -0.4 40.1 45.2 10.4 11.0 12.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 14.3 13.4 14.6 -0.3 43.4 46.0 12.5 13.8 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 10.2 9.8 12.2 0.0 49.2 50.7 7.8 9.8 10.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 10.9 10.3 12.3 -0.1 46.0 48.7 10.0 10.6 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 9.8 9.7 10.7 0.2 53.8 53.1 8.9 9.6 10.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 10.4 11.4 14.1 -0.4 41.2 45.2 10.8 11.7 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 6.0 5.7 10.6 0.2 53.2 53.3 4.7 5.6 6.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 12.2 11.6 12.4 -0.1 45.4 48.0 11.1 11.8 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.7 11.3 11.2 0.0 49.8 51.1 10.7 11.3 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.3 11.2 12.0 0.1 52.7 51.7 10.0 11.1 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 9.7 9.5 11.3 0.2 52.5 52.7 9.0 9.5 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 10.1 9.8 10.5 0.1 50.2 51.5 9.3 9.8 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.2 11.6 12.3 -0.2 44.4 47.7 11.0 11.8 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 12.0 11.8 13.5 0.2 54.3 53.2 11.2 11.6 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 11.8 11.6 11.4 0.2 54.0 52.6 10.6 11.4 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 10.7 11.5 13.8 -0.3 40.9 46.0 11.0 12.1 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 10.2 9.9 10.6 0.0 49.6 51.4 9.2 9.9 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 10.3 11.0 14.0 -0.3 41.4 45.6 10.8 11.4 13.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.7 6.4 8.6 0.2 51.9 53.5 5.5 6.4 7.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.6 10.9 13.7 -0.3 41.8 45.4 10.3 11.3 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 9.8 10.2 13.7 -0.3 38.9 44.6 9.8 10.6 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 10.0 11.0 14.1 -0.2 44.6 47.0 10.1 11.3 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.8 11.0 12.3 -0.1 47.8 49.4 10.6 11.4 12.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 10.7 11.3 13.0 -0.3 42.8 46.0 10.8 11.9 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.5 10.2 10.4 0.1 49.0 51.5 9.7 10.2 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 12.4 11.4 13.6 -0.3 42.7 46.4 10.5 11.9 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 10.3 10.2 12.5 0.1 52.5 52.1 9.2 10.0 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 10.0 9.6 10.0 0.0 49.8 51.5 7.8 9.6 10.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 10.8 11.8 14.2 -0.4 40.8 45.1 11.1 12.0 13.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------