***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.09.2016.-11.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 12.1 12.3 16.3 0.4 60.3 56.7 9.9 11.9 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 11.8 12.3 15.8 0.4 56.7 56.5 10.6 11.4 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 14.4 14.6 16.5 0.4 57.2 57.2 12.4 14.1 14.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 9.4 9.7 14.2 0.5 60.8 59.6 7.7 8.9 9.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.9 10.8 14.2 0.4 56.8 57.8 9.8 10.6 11.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 10.8 10.5 12.5 0.6 66.9 61.0 8.6 10.0 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 12.1 12.4 16.0 0.3 55.2 55.3 11.2 11.8 12.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 5.6 5.4 12.3 0.5 60.3 59.3 3.7 5.2 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 12.1 12.1 14.2 0.4 54.1 57.4 10.7 11.8 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.8 11.8 12.9 0.4 58.1 58.4 10.4 11.4 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 12.1 11.6 13.7 0.5 63.0 58.6 10.4 11.3 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.9 10.4 13.0 0.5 60.8 58.8 8.6 9.5 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 11.5 11.5 12.3 0.4 62.7 58.5 9.7 10.7 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 12.4 12.3 14.2 0.4 54.4 56.5 10.8 12.0 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 12.8 13.2 15.5 0.7 66.8 60.9 11.7 12.4 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 13.0 12.7 13.2 0.5 66.3 59.0 11.0 12.0 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 12.5 12.6 15.7 0.4 56.4 57.4 11.7 12.3 12.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.7 10.9 12.3 0.4 55.5 58.4 8.6 10.3 11.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 12.4 12.6 16.0 0.4 58.0 56.8 10.8 12.3 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.2 6.7 10.2 0.4 53.9 57.7 5.3 6.5 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 11.6 11.7 15.6 0.3 55.0 56.3 10.3 11.3 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 11.7 11.5 15.6 0.3 54.8 55.1 10.1 11.5 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 12.0 12.1 16.0 0.4 58.7 57.1 10.1 11.8 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.0 12.1 14.1 0.4 56.5 58.7 10.4 11.6 12.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 11.9 12.0 15.0 0.5 58.4 58.5 10.4 11.6 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 11.7 11.6 12.3 0.5 66.5 60.4 9.5 10.8 11.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 12.1 12.6 15.6 0.5 60.8 58.0 10.0 11.5 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 10.6 11.3 14.6 0.6 66.6 60.2 9.6 10.3 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 9.5 9.2 11.7 0.4 53.3 57.5 7.9 9.1 10.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 12.4 12.9 16.1 0.3 56.1 55.7 11.3 12.1 13.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------