***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.08.2016.-04.09.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 13.6 13.2 16.7 -0.3 47.4 46.3 12.0 13.3 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 13.8 13.7 16.5 0.0 52.6 51.9 11.4 13.6 14.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 15.8 15.7 17.0 -0.2 51.0 48.8 14.4 15.6 16.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.2 11.4 14.8 0.4 60.5 55.9 10.0 10.9 11.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 10.7 12.4 15.0 0.0 53.3 50.8 10.8 12.3 13.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 11.7 11.5 12.7 0.2 52.0 52.4 10.5 11.5 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 14.0 13.9 16.6 -0.1 52.0 49.7 11.9 13.8 14.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 7.2 7.0 12.8 0.2 54.9 53.4 6.0 7.0 7.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 13.6 13.5 15.1 0.0 51.5 50.6 11.7 13.4 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 13.5 13.5 13.6 0.1 54.1 52.3 12.2 13.3 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 11.8 13.2 14.7 0.0 51.6 50.9 11.5 12.8 13.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 11.7 11.5 13.7 0.0 52.3 51.0 10.5 11.4 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 12.5 12.0 13.2 -0.2 45.7 48.1 11.4 12.1 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 14.2 14.0 15.0 0.1 54.0 52.2 12.6 14.0 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 14.7 15.2 16.5 0.4 62.4 57.2 13.0 14.3 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 12.6 14.2 14.0 0.0 50.3 50.0 12.2 14.2 14.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 14.0 14.0 16.5 0.4 60.3 57.5 12.8 13.8 14.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.9 11.7 13.0 0.1 53.7 53.0 10.9 11.5 12.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 13.5 13.7 16.7 0.1 54.7 52.6 12.3 13.2 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 8.2 8.6 11.1 0.2 58.0 54.9 7.2 7.9 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 13.4 12.7 16.3 -0.2 47.5 48.0 11.6 13.0 13.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 13.0 13.6 16.7 0.4 62.2 56.7 11.3 12.7 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 13.2 13.4 16.8 0.2 57.6 54.6 11.9 12.8 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 13.9 13.7 15.0 0.1 53.8 52.7 12.0 13.6 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 13.7 13.2 15.8 -0.3 47.8 47.1 11.8 13.3 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 12.9 12.6 12.7 -0.2 46.6 46.1 11.5 12.7 13.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 14.1 13.8 16.2 -0.3 48.7 47.2 11.5 13.8 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 12.0 12.8 15.3 0.4 61.3 56.5 10.5 11.4 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 11.1 11.0 12.4 0.2 53.7 54.4 10.0 10.8 11.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 13.8 13.4 16.7 -0.2 49.4 48.3 12.3 13.6 14.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------