***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 18.08.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.08.2016.-28.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 13.1 13.6 16.8 -1.6 26.3 29.1 13.8 14.6 16.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 13.1 12.9 16.7 -1.4 28.5 31.3 13.7 14.5 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 15.5 14.9 17.0 -1.7 24.8 28.8 15.6 17.2 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 12.6 11.5 15.0 -1.1 39.2 37.8 11.2 12.3 13.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 12.0 11.2 15.6 -1.2 31.1 34.1 11.3 13.5 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 11.3 11.6 13.1 -0.9 32.4 37.0 11.8 12.5 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 13.7 14.1 16.8 -1.5 31.3 31.2 14.1 15.0 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 8.2 7.7 13.4 -0.7 40.5 41.4 7.0 7.9 8.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 13.2 13.7 16.1 -0.8 37.1 40.4 13.2 14.7 15.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 14.8 13.9 14.4 -0.7 40.3 41.4 13.2 14.5 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 14.2 13.2 15.8 -0.8 38.3 40.5 12.6 13.8 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 12.6 11.7 14.5 -0.9 37.3 39.0 11.3 12.4 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 13.6 12.5 14.6 -0.7 36.1 39.2 12.4 13.3 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 13.9 14.0 15.4 -1.2 32.8 34.7 14.0 15.1 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 16.0 15.7 17.5 -0.5 47.1 44.9 14.4 15.8 16.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 15.2 13.8 15.0 -0.9 32.5 36.4 14.0 15.0 15.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 15.6 14.5 16.7 -1.0 36.6 36.8 14.2 15.4 16.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 12.7 11.6 13.6 -0.9 36.0 38.4 11.2 12.3 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 13.6 13.0 16.8 -1.4 27.7 31.1 13.8 15.0 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 8.9 7.5 11.7 -1.0 33.2 36.8 7.5 8.7 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 12.7 12.7 16.9 -1.3 29.3 33.1 13.2 14.1 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 14.1 13.5 16.9 -1.2 35.6 35.1 13.4 13.8 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 13.1 13.0 16.9 -1.4 30.7 33.0 13.1 14.4 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 15.2 13.7 15.6 -1.1 36.4 36.9 13.3 15.1 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 12.6 12.0 16.0 -1.8 21.6 26.3 13.3 14.3 15.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 12.5 12.8 13.3 -1.2 27.5 31.3 13.0 13.5 14.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 12.7 12.5 16.4 -1.6 26.3 29.6 13.2 14.9 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 13.4 12.7 15.9 -0.7 44.2 43.6 12.2 13.1 13.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 12.5 11.4 12.8 -1.0 36.5 37.4 10.9 12.2 13.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 13.4 12.6 16.8 -1.7 26.2 28.8 13.7 15.3 16.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------