***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.08.2017.-17.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 59.1 53.0 33.1 83.7 48.1 44.6 34.4 53.1 58.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 55.7 50.7 32.9 86.8 50.4 45.8 29.0 50.6 62.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 61.3 55.0 33.4 85.4 47.7 44.8 34.0 56.0 66.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 65.6 60.7 35.9 92.0 54.9 47.8 40.5 58.6 77.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 52.9 46.2 33.6 91.0 54.3 48.0 34.2 43.8 65.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 28.4 46.2 42.2 98.7 57.7 47.5 25.6 39.6 55.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 47.4 36.6 33.0 86.1 48.9 45.0 30.2 38.8 60.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 57.1 82.8 41.5 95.7 53.5 46.8 61.1 78.4 98.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 54.2 52.8 33.9 88.3 51.4 46.9 36.1 49.9 62.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 35.0 57.3 42.3 93.7 53.3 47.4 35.9 48.5 69.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 51.7 49.7 35.6 96.9 56.6 48.7 35.7 45.5 55.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 45.7 44.3 33.8 95.7 55.9 47.3 28.2 37.7 59.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 49.5 45.3 38.4 102.3 60.1 50.4 37.8 44.1 53.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 40.1 59.0 42.5 86.9 48.9 44.5 40.3 60.0 90.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 33.7 37.1 31.0 92.2 59.0 48.8 20.3 28.9 43.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 51.7 52.8 35.5 97.8 58.8 49.6 34.4 48.2 58.7 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 34.4 50.2 33.9 86.5 50.1 45.0 40.3 50.2 62.8 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 41.5 61.0 44.5 87.8 48.6 44.9 37.6 61.4 75.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 60.9 56.7 33.3 87.2 51.3 45.9 32.8 55.8 67.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 52.3 71.6 48.0 89.5 47.6 44.8 50.8 73.7 82.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 29.7 50.1 32.1 83.6 49.7 44.8 34.0 50.2 64.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 63.4 56.7 36.6 90.5 53.5 47.2 36.4 53.5 71.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 59.9 53.0 33.8 85.6 49.3 45.0 28.0 54.2 67.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 42.8 61.3 40.1 88.5 50.8 45.7 36.0 61.3 81.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 60.9 56.8 36.6 86.6 52.3 46.2 35.7 54.1 67.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 22.3 38.3 31.7 94.7 56.6 46.9 28.2 33.8 42.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 60.2 53.9 36.4 86.3 50.1 45.9 35.8 53.8 70.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 43.1 45.8 34.8 95.9 58.0 48.9 31.6 38.8 48.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 62.0 84.7 45.7 86.6 46.9 43.7 53.6 88.1 110.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 49.7 46.5 33.4 88.0 50.2 46.1 28.7 46.5 54.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------