***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.09.2017.-17.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 3.9 22.9 9.2 99.5 66.3 52.4 2.8 7.9 22.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 11.4 16.0 8.6 99.4 65.9 52.8 2.8 9.5 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 12.1 19.7 9.2 99.1 67.2 52.9 0.9 6.3 18.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 13.1 14.8 9.4 95.9 67.7 51.8 1.6 8.3 13.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 13.8 15.3 8.5 91.4 64.3 51.4 1.4 11.2 16.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 2.5 6.3 10.1 88.5 61.2 46.2 1.5 4.8 7.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 9.8 12.7 8.5 96.6 65.0 51.2 3.4 6.2 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 9.2 25.4 9.6 89.9 61.2 49.7 9.8 19.3 27.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 14.3 18.4 8.8 93.4 61.8 53.5 4.0 11.2 21.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 5.8 14.1 10.2 92.7 60.6 51.7 4.9 11.6 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 4.4 12.4 8.0 90.5 62.2 49.7 1.7 9.4 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 3.5 12.9 7.6 85.8 62.1 48.7 2.6 8.2 15.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 2.1 9.3 7.2 73.3 60.2 42.0 2.0 5.8 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 14.8 18.2 11.2 92.6 62.0 51.9 3.3 7.6 20.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 1.3 11.1 8.1 95.5 70.0 50.1 1.3 2.8 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 2.6 7.5 7.5 81.4 61.8 47.2 3.2 5.9 8.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 13.2 15.7 8.7 94.4 65.7 51.8 1.7 10.4 16.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 17.0 18.4 11.0 88.6 60.1 49.7 5.5 12.6 19.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 11.3 14.4 8.7 98.3 65.2 53.2 2.5 8.1 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 8.8 14.3 11.3 81.8 55.5 44.3 7.0 13.6 21.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 19.3 20.0 8.8 95.6 65.9 53.2 2.5 15.8 20.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 11.4 12.6 9.5 94.9 64.4 51.7 1.5 7.9 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 11.4 14.1 8.4 90.7 61.9 51.9 4.2 7.5 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 14.2 18.6 10.7 97.8 63.8 53.0 3.9 9.4 19.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 17.5 30.2 10.2 102.3 66.4 51.5 2.0 12.4 30.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 1.9 8.1 7.1 76.1 61.2 46.8 1.0 4.0 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 12.4 25.8 10.0 101.7 66.3 52.2 0.9 5.5 25.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 3.1 11.6 8.6 90.1 68.3 50.2 0.8 6.7 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 21.3 22.9 11.3 86.8 58.4 48.6 10.0 16.5 25.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 13.8 13.6 8.9 100.1 66.5 52.6 5.4 10.8 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------