***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.09.2017.-10.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 7.1 7.5 9.7 90.1 65.7 52.7 0.9 2.8 7.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.5 9.3 10.9 108.2 70.3 53.2 1.8 4.0 7.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 7.1 9.1 9.7 88.6 66.2 52.5 2.3 3.9 8.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 20.1 20.9 8.1 72.4 64.3 48.2 5.8 17.4 21.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 4.5 15.3 8.2 74.8 63.5 47.0 3.1 9.4 16.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 3.5 8.9 9.0 75.5 58.6 43.9 5.7 8.1 11.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 8.5 15.1 10.3 103.2 67.8 52.8 1.2 5.1 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 9.5 25.3 9.2 74.9 57.9 46.6 10.4 19.7 29.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 13.2 15.9 8.7 75.1 62.6 48.3 3.6 10.4 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 12.0 12.7 9.9 76.4 60.0 48.1 3.9 8.9 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 4.3 14.0 7.6 71.6 58.7 44.1 3.5 11.0 17.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 4.1 11.8 7.1 71.2 58.9 45.3 5.6 9.4 18.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 3.5 12.5 6.4 59.6 56.1 38.3 3.6 10.4 19.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 8.8 14.0 12.7 90.7 65.1 50.6 2.7 6.2 14.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 2.2 8.2 6.8 68.0 64.2 47.2 1.2 4.6 9.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 3.8 11.6 6.8 65.5 57.5 42.2 5.5 9.4 12.3 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 2.2 15.8 11.9 116.0 71.3 52.4 1.7 4.4 13.4 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.9 14.6 10.8 74.7 58.9 47.7 5.1 11.6 17.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.6 13.5 10.6 103.0 69.6 52.6 1.3 5.8 12.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 7.2 17.1 10.0 65.7 51.8 41.4 8.8 15.3 28.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 7.9 10.0 8.3 74.5 62.4 49.1 3.4 6.0 10.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 4.8 14.8 12.6 116.3 72.1 51.8 3.4 8.9 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 7.9 8.7 9.9 90.4 64.9 50.3 1.9 4.4 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 4.4 14.8 10.7 81.4 62.0 49.7 2.6 8.3 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 8.2 9.1 9.2 78.7 63.2 48.9 3.0 6.4 9.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 9.3 11.2 6.8 74.7 62.2 46.5 1.6 7.0 12.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 6.3 10.8 10.5 91.4 65.4 52.0 1.7 3.8 11.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.0 13.6 7.5 70.8 62.8 46.5 2.5 6.6 14.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 10.7 22.5 11.1 73.7 56.6 46.0 11.9 19.5 27.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.7 9.8 10.7 103.9 68.3 53.9 1.4 4.2 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------