***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.08.2017.-03.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 11.0 8.9 8.9 81.4 59.2 46.4 4.2 7.7 10.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.3 13.8 9.1 84.9 64.2 46.3 3.2 7.8 14.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 10.3 10.2 8.6 77.7 55.4 45.7 2.7 7.0 16.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 11.3 10.9 7.4 77.2 61.2 46.3 3.1 7.2 19.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 3.0 9.9 6.4 67.7 58.1 40.6 3.1 7.8 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 7.6 5.3 7.4 66.9 55.5 42.4 2.8 4.6 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 8.1 8.6 10.1 92.9 64.1 49.2 3.9 6.6 9.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 19.9 24.1 9.2 85.9 59.8 46.5 5.5 14.5 30.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 4.6 12.1 7.5 75.6 59.2 45.5 5.8 8.1 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 6.1 12.2 8.9 78.8 58.2 45.4 5.7 12.0 22.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 3.5 9.4 6.9 67.6 53.5 39.1 3.5 7.6 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 4.8 11.4 7.7 83.1 59.3 45.4 2.1 9.7 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 3.0 7.1 5.5 56.1 50.6 34.1 2.9 7.0 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 7.2 14.3 11.0 83.2 56.8 45.5 7.5 13.4 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 1.2 3.9 6.7 74.0 61.4 45.2 0.3 2.5 7.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 2.6 10.3 6.6 70.1 57.2 41.2 2.0 5.6 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 4.7 12.8 9.5 86.8 65.4 47.8 5.4 8.8 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 12.1 11.8 10.3 83.7 57.1 45.8 5.1 8.8 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 5.1 11.2 9.2 86.3 62.5 46.1 5.7 8.4 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 7.6 16.2 9.6 75.4 52.7 41.0 7.9 16.0 20.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 8.6 6.7 7.4 71.0 56.0 43.9 3.2 6.3 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 8.0 14.9 10.3 92.4 65.6 48.8 8.3 13.3 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 14.5 13.3 9.7 88.2 59.4 46.8 5.7 11.5 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 14.5 15.7 9.9 80.4 55.9 44.3 6.3 10.6 20.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 9.4 8.7 9.0 74.4 55.7 43.2 1.8 6.0 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.2 12.9 6.8 75.2 63.3 47.8 0.5 5.6 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 12.6 13.1 9.9 83.1 58.7 46.8 1.5 10.0 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.8 8.5 6.4 73.5 60.9 45.8 1.7 6.8 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 9.3 18.2 11.2 83.5 54.6 44.6 7.9 17.5 26.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.6 10.7 9.5 88.1 63.6 47.6 4.0 8.2 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------