***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.08.2017.-27.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 3.9 2.0 5.2 61.6 54.3 45.7 0.0 1.5 8.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 2.7 5.2 4.2 50.6 50.7 38.9 2.1 4.8 12.2 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 2.5 10.4 5.9 75.6 59.9 46.3 0.8 5.1 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 11.7 15.8 11.0 130.5 72.5 53.8 1.7 9.9 14.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 6.2 14.4 10.5 147.3 74.6 56.0 0.7 3.1 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 11.0 17.7 15.7 187.4 81.2 58.5 0.8 9.0 12.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 7.7 3.9 4.1 47.5 48.1 39.6 0.7 4.4 13.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 7.4 25.5 13.7 138.0 71.1 48.5 3.7 15.3 23.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 7.0 12.4 9.0 118.7 68.0 52.7 0.5 3.6 12.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 8.9 14.6 13.3 133.9 69.8 51.4 1.8 6.2 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 2.2 18.1 13.1 195.8 80.8 56.6 2.3 4.4 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 2.3 11.3 11.4 161.7 76.7 51.0 1.7 5.4 8.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 12.7 22.6 19.3 275.3 88.7 63.5 0.6 3.9 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 68 32 0 100 3.0 14.4 7.6 78.8 58.4 42.3 3.7 9.1 19.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 4.4 15.3 9.3 154.1 76.7 57.6 0.4 1.0 7.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 1.9 15.8 14.6 207.6 82.3 58.8 0.9 4.1 11.7 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 4.2 7.0 3.8 43.6 45.8 35.9 3.4 11.0 18.7 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 3.5 15.3 12.4 106.6 63.8 47.1 1.4 7.3 15.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 4.1 9.8 4.8 57.7 52.7 39.8 3.0 9.2 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 6.2 19.8 17.0 151.6 75.2 50.1 8.6 12.9 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 9.4 11.7 7.7 100.1 64.9 51.2 0.7 6.7 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 4.3 9.0 4.2 49.2 47.9 35.5 4.1 9.8 19.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 2.9 8.3 5.9 70.5 54.8 42.1 1.5 6.8 13.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 3.4 13.8 8.8 99.2 63.8 46.0 1.1 8.1 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 8.3 8.7 8.2 96.6 62.0 52.9 0.7 5.6 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 2.0 21.6 11.0 183.3 81.6 55.0 1.1 4.4 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 10.3 7.5 6.1 67.5 54.9 46.8 2.3 5.8 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 6.2 19.8 12.3 168.5 78.6 57.2 0.3 2.5 10.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 4.7 17.3 12.1 105.9 63.4 45.0 3.4 10.5 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 2.0 3.7 4.4 54.5 51.7 41.0 1.1 3.6 10.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------