***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.08.2017.-17.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 25.8 25.8 26.8 0.3 53.8 54.7 24.8 25.4 26.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 26.0 26.2 27.0 0.4 55.5 55.1 24.9 25.8 26.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 84 16 100 25.9 26.1 27.3 0.5 59.5 57.7 25.1 25.8 26.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 19.9 20.1 25.5 1.2 73.8 68.1 18.1 18.8 19.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 26.9 27.0 25.5 0.5 59.9 57.7 25.2 26.7 27.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 25.3 25.8 23.1 0.4 61.8 57.3 24.4 25.1 26.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 25.6 25.8 26.9 0.4 56.8 55.1 24.5 25.3 26.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 15.0 15.3 23.6 0.4 59.1 57.2 14.0 14.9 15.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 26.3 26.5 26.2 0.6 64.1 60.5 25.0 26.2 26.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 26.0 26.0 24.5 0.5 59.7 57.7 24.6 25.8 26.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 26.5 26.8 25.5 0.5 61.5 58.0 24.7 26.3 27.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 25.8 26.1 24.9 0.6 63.5 59.8 24.1 25.6 26.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 26.8 26.6 24.5 0.1 52.9 53.2 25.5 26.5 27.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 25.7 26.0 25.6 0.5 60.0 57.2 25.2 25.5 26.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 27.4 27.6 27.2 1.6 78.4 74.0 25.6 26.6 27.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 27.5 27.8 25.2 0.5 63.3 59.5 25.9 27.3 27.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 25.0 25.0 26.5 0.2 51.6 52.5 24.2 24.7 26.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 84 16 100 25.2 25.4 23.8 0.5 60.9 57.8 23.8 25.1 25.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 25.6 26.0 27.3 0.5 58.7 57.3 24.8 25.3 26.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 21.3 21.3 21.3 0.1 53.3 53.1 20.1 21.1 21.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 26.2 26.3 26.6 0.3 55.8 55.1 25.0 26.0 26.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 25.8 25.5 26.4 0.1 49.6 50.8 24.7 25.6 26.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 25.7 26.4 27.6 0.9 67.9 63.1 24.9 25.4 26.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 25.5 25.6 25.7 0.7 64.6 59.8 24.7 25.3 25.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 26.5 26.3 25.5 0.3 53.4 54.5 24.8 26.2 27.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 26.1 27.1 24.6 0.7 65.8 61.7 25.5 25.8 27.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 25.9 26.0 26.0 0.2 53.7 54.3 24.8 25.6 26.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 27.5 27.6 26.1 1.2 74.3 69.4 25.9 26.9 27.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 20.4 20.5 22.8 0.3 56.3 54.9 19.5 20.2 21.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 25.7 26.0 27.1 0.4 57.4 55.8 24.7 25.5 26.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------