***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.09.2017.-17.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 25.4 26.0 25.6 1.0 61.5 58.7 21.7 25.1 26.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 25.8 25.9 25.6 0.9 61.4 57.2 22.8 25.4 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 25.8 26.5 26.1 1.3 65.1 60.3 22.8 25.6 26.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 19.1 19.8 24.6 1.9 73.4 66.5 15.0 17.7 19.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 26.4 26.8 24.6 1.4 65.8 61.6 23.2 26.2 26.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 24.6 25.7 22.2 1.4 65.6 62.4 22.6 24.3 25.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 25.5 25.6 25.5 0.9 61.8 57.1 22.4 25.1 25.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 15.1 14.9 22.8 1.4 65.6 61.9 12.5 14.0 14.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 26.0 26.5 24.8 1.4 65.0 61.2 22.8 25.8 26.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 25.4 25.7 23.5 1.3 65.0 61.4 22.8 25.2 25.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 25.7 26.6 24.4 1.5 67.0 62.6 22.9 25.4 26.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 25.6 25.8 24.1 1.5 67.6 62.8 22.4 24.7 25.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 26.3 26.8 23.3 1.2 65.5 60.4 23.5 26.0 26.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 25.2 25.9 24.1 1.2 63.4 59.4 23.3 24.8 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 26.7 27.0 25.4 2.1 76.7 69.2 22.9 26.0 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 27.3 27.9 24.2 1.6 68.9 63.5 24.0 26.4 27.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 24.7 24.6 25.0 0.6 57.9 55.2 21.9 24.3 25.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 24.2 25.1 23.0 1.3 64.0 61.2 22.5 23.7 25.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 25.4 25.7 25.8 1.1 63.4 58.7 22.3 25.1 25.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 20.4 21.2 20.4 1.1 61.6 59.9 18.5 20.1 21.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 26.0 26.4 25.4 1.1 61.4 59.5 22.8 25.7 26.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 25.1 25.4 24.9 0.6 58.3 55.6 22.7 24.5 25.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 25.4 25.7 26.0 1.4 66.6 61.2 22.7 25.0 25.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 25.3 25.9 24.4 1.4 65.9 61.2 22.6 25.1 25.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 25.5 26.1 24.2 1.1 62.7 59.7 22.0 25.2 26.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 26.7 26.5 23.9 1.7 70.5 64.4 23.6 25.3 26.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 25.4 26.0 24.8 1.0 60.7 58.4 22.2 25.1 26.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 26.7 26.9 24.9 2.0 73.9 67.3 23.3 25.9 26.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 19.5 20.5 21.9 1.1 62.6 59.9 18.1 19.2 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 25.3 25.9 25.7 1.0 62.8 58.2 22.6 25.0 26.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------