***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.09.2017.-10.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 24.8 24.8 26.7 1.0 63.0 60.3 22.9 24.3 25.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 25.1 25.1 26.7 0.9 61.9 58.8 22.6 24.6 26.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 24.9 25.7 27.2 1.3 64.4 62.0 23.2 24.4 25.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 18.9 19.7 25.9 2.1 74.9 69.9 15.7 16.7 18.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 26.6 26.3 25.7 1.5 68.3 64.6 23.0 24.5 25.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 25.0 24.6 23.4 1.5 70.5 65.7 22.2 23.0 24.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 24.4 24.9 26.6 0.9 62.7 59.0 22.8 23.8 26.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 14.7 14.4 24.0 1.4 68.1 64.2 11.7 12.4 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 25.9 25.8 25.9 1.5 67.8 64.0 22.6 24.1 25.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 25.7 25.6 24.6 1.4 67.7 63.7 22.4 24.1 25.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 26.2 26.6 25.6 1.6 69.2 65.7 22.3 23.9 26.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 25.3 25.2 25.3 1.6 69.3 65.9 21.9 23.1 25.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 43 57 100 26.0 26.2 24.5 1.3 66.2 63.4 23.4 24.4 26.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 24.8 25.3 25.1 1.1 61.0 60.4 22.8 24.4 25.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 26.6 27.3 26.8 2.3 78.4 72.4 23.7 24.9 25.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 27.1 27.1 25.5 1.7 69.9 67.1 23.6 24.9 26.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 24.1 23.8 26.2 0.7 59.2 56.5 22.6 23.5 25.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 24.7 24.3 24.0 1.4 66.2 63.1 21.7 22.9 24.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 24.9 25.2 26.9 1.1 63.0 60.1 22.3 24.4 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 19.4 20.7 21.4 1.1 63.4 61.1 17.7 18.7 21.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 25.9 25.8 26.4 1.2 63.0 61.4 22.8 24.3 26.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 25.0 24.7 26.0 0.7 56.4 55.8 22.7 24.5 25.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 24.9 25.3 27.1 1.4 65.3 62.8 22.4 24.3 25.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 41 59 100 25.4 25.3 25.5 1.5 66.1 63.4 22.5 23.9 25.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 24.9 25.2 25.3 1.1 63.9 61.6 23.1 24.2 25.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 25.8 26.0 25.2 1.9 71.8 68.7 22.8 24.2 25.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 24.5 24.9 25.8 1.0 62.3 60.2 23.0 23.9 25.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 26.6 27.2 26.2 2.1 75.6 70.9 23.3 24.9 25.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 19.2 20.1 22.9 1.2 63.9 61.1 17.3 18.6 20.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 24.7 25.3 26.8 1.1 63.2 60.0 22.7 24.2 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------