***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.08.2017.-03.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 27.3 27.6 28.2 0.6 60.3 56.5 23.8 27.1 27.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 27.2 27.3 28.5 0.8 63.3 58.2 24.5 27.0 27.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 26.5 27.1 28.8 0.9 63.8 59.0 24.6 26.0 27.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 20.7 20.8 26.8 1.6 72.0 66.4 17.5 19.3 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 27.1 28.0 27.1 0.9 60.3 59.0 25.0 26.7 28.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 27.1 27.0 24.5 0.7 60.6 59.6 23.8 25.9 27.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 26.9 27.0 28.4 0.8 63.5 58.4 24.4 26.7 27.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 15.7 16.0 25.0 0.8 60.1 58.6 13.3 15.2 16.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 26.5 27.3 27.8 1.1 65.1 61.2 24.3 26.0 27.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 25.8 26.7 26.0 0.9 60.9 58.8 24.4 25.3 27.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 26.5 27.3 27.2 0.9 59.8 59.4 24.7 26.0 27.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 27.4 26.8 26.4 1.0 63.5 60.9 23.9 25.8 26.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 25.3 27.7 26.2 0.6 56.0 56.5 24.8 27.3 28.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 37 63 100 27.4 26.5 27.0 0.8 62.2 58.3 24.3 26.2 26.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 28.0 28.4 28.9 1.9 78.7 70.9 25.9 26.9 27.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 28.9 28.8 26.8 0.9 61.0 60.3 25.5 27.9 29.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 26.2 26.4 27.9 0.6 58.8 56.4 23.8 25.8 26.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 25.5 26.1 25.2 0.9 61.7 58.6 23.3 25.1 26.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 27.4 27.0 28.7 0.9 65.0 59.2 23.9 26.3 27.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 19.6 22.2 22.7 0.5 56.9 55.3 19.6 21.7 22.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 26.7 27.2 28.1 0.7 59.3 57.0 24.5 26.2 27.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 23.7 27.0 27.6 0.3 55.3 54.2 24.1 26.0 27.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 27.3 27.3 29.0 1.3 69.4 62.4 24.2 26.3 27.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 26.0 26.8 27.2 1.1 64.4 60.0 24.0 25.5 26.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 24.7 27.1 26.9 0.6 58.0 56.1 24.7 26.8 27.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 28.2 28.1 26.2 1.2 66.6 63.3 24.7 26.7 28.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 24.3 27.0 27.4 0.6 59.2 56.2 24.8 26.6 27.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 28.3 28.4 27.6 1.6 72.1 67.4 25.5 26.6 28.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 21.0 21.1 24.2 0.7 58.5 56.5 18.2 20.5 21.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 26.8 27.3 28.6 0.8 63.6 58.1 24.1 26.4 27.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------