***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.08.2017.-27.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 28.6 27.5 26.8 -1.5 37.8 38.3 27.1 28.0 30.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 85 15 100 28.4 28.0 27.5 -1.2 43.4 42.5 26.2 28.0 29.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 29.0 28.1 27.2 -1.4 42.2 41.1 26.3 28.4 28.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 20.5 21.2 24.6 -0.9 44.7 44.2 20.4 21.7 22.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 27.4 28.0 24.8 -1.9 33.3 33.8 28.0 29.2 30.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 72 28 0 100 25.6 26.2 22.1 -2.1 23.8 28.7 26.6 27.5 29.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 28.0 27.5 27.3 -1.2 43.5 41.8 25.7 27.6 29.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 15.2 16.1 22.5 -2.0 31.3 32.0 16.1 16.8 18.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 27.0 27.9 26.1 -1.4 40.7 39.9 26.9 28.6 29.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 26.7 27.5 23.8 -1.8 34.5 35.0 27.2 28.2 29.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 26.9 27.4 24.9 -2.1 29.4 31.4 27.5 28.8 29.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 26.2 27.2 23.8 -1.9 32.6 32.9 27.2 28.1 29.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 74 26 0 100 27.0 26.9 23.9 -2.6 22.2 24.8 28.0 28.8 30.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 28.4 27.3 26.0 -1.1 45.5 43.6 26.4 27.9 29.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 29.7 29.5 27.8 -0.1 55.6 52.6 27.0 29.1 30.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 27.9 27.8 24.4 -2.1 27.5 30.7 28.7 29.9 31.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 28.2 27.5 27.1 -1.2 42.4 41.8 25.8 27.8 28.7 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 25.7 26.4 23.1 -1.6 38.1 37.7 26.0 27.0 28.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 28.2 27.5 27.7 -1.0 45.1 44.7 26.0 27.9 29.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 66 34 0 100 21.4 22.1 20.7 -2.1 30.3 30.9 22.3 23.0 23.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 26.9 26.9 26.5 -1.8 35.0 35.4 26.6 28.6 29.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 28.3 27.5 26.9 -1.3 40.4 40.4 26.3 28.0 29.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 28.5 28.1 28.1 -0.4 51.7 51.5 26.4 28.1 28.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 28.2 27.2 25.8 -1.2 44.4 42.4 26.2 27.7 28.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 29.3 26.4 25.4 -1.8 33.2 34.5 26.4 28.5 29.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 27.0 27.4 23.2 -2.1 25.9 29.4 27.7 28.7 29.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 28.4 26.8 26.1 -1.6 36.6 37.3 26.5 27.8 29.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 27.8 29.0 25.7 -0.8 44.7 44.3 27.6 29.2 30.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 21.4 22.0 22.3 -1.8 36.6 35.8 21.5 22.6 23.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 28.3 27.6 27.4 -1.2 43.5 42.2 26.3 28.0 29.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------