***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.08.2017.-17.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 12.6 12.9 16.2 -0.1 47.2 48.4 12.6 12.9 13.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 12.9 12.7 15.8 -0.2 45.1 45.7 12.3 12.7 13.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 15.1 14.9 16.4 0.0 51.0 50.6 14.4 14.9 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 10.9 10.9 14.1 0.3 60.8 56.6 9.8 10.6 11.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 11.1 11.6 14.0 -0.1 48.3 49.3 11.3 11.6 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.9 10.8 12.0 0.1 54.1 53.5 10.3 10.8 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 13.2 13.1 16.1 -0.1 49.1 48.6 12.8 13.1 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 5.6 6.2 11.7 -0.1 44.2 47.0 6.0 6.3 6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 13.0 12.9 14.2 0.0 52.6 51.6 12.6 12.9 13.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 11.9 12.5 12.5 -0.1 44.9 47.1 12.3 12.7 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 11.5 12.1 13.5 -0.1 45.4 48.3 11.8 12.3 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 10.2 10.6 12.6 0.0 49.6 50.1 10.1 10.6 11.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 11.0 11.3 12.1 -0.2 40.1 44.5 11.2 11.5 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 12.6 13.1 14.0 -0.1 48.7 49.3 12.9 13.1 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 14.2 14.1 15.7 0.6 70.2 66.0 13.2 13.7 14.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 13.1 12.9 13.0 0.0 49.3 50.2 12.6 12.9 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 13.3 13.2 15.6 -0.2 45.1 46.3 12.9 13.2 13.7 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 10.5 10.9 11.8 -0.1 46.9 47.2 10.7 10.9 11.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 13.0 12.9 16.0 -0.1 47.8 47.9 12.6 12.9 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 6.8 7.3 9.8 -0.2 39.9 43.1 6.9 7.4 7.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 12.6 12.6 15.4 -0.1 48.8 48.5 12.3 12.6 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 12.5 12.3 15.6 -0.2 44.6 46.1 12.1 12.4 12.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 12.4 12.3 16.1 0.1 53.9 53.6 12.1 12.3 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.7 12.6 14.0 0.1 54.1 52.0 12.2 12.5 13.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 12.3 12.6 15.0 -0.2 45.0 46.6 12.4 12.6 12.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 11.8 11.7 11.9 -0.1 47.3 49.5 11.3 11.7 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 12.4 12.8 15.5 -0.1 46.4 47.8 12.5 12.9 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 11.9 11.7 14.4 0.4 64.1 60.9 10.8 11.4 11.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 9.6 9.9 11.1 -0.2 42.3 44.5 9.7 10.2 10.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 13.4 13.3 16.2 -0.1 47.0 47.6 13.0 13.3 13.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------