***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.09.2017.-17.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 12.3 12.3 15.1 0.4 57.6 54.3 10.6 12.0 12.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 12.1 12.1 14.7 0.3 56.5 53.9 11.1 11.7 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 14.1 14.8 15.3 0.5 59.9 56.3 12.9 13.7 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 10.4 10.3 12.7 0.7 62.9 57.8 8.1 10.0 10.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 11.2 11.0 12.6 0.5 59.1 55.8 10.0 10.9 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 8.4 9.7 10.9 0.5 60.6 56.5 8.7 9.4 9.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 12.3 12.4 14.9 0.4 58.9 55.1 11.2 12.0 12.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 4.1 6.1 10.6 0.3 53.9 54.1 4.7 5.7 6.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.3 12.4 12.8 0.4 57.9 55.6 11.1 12.1 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 10.2 11.7 11.2 0.3 54.6 53.6 10.7 11.5 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 9.8 11.1 12.0 0.4 56.4 55.2 10.1 11.0 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 9.9 9.8 11.2 0.4 56.3 55.6 8.6 9.6 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 10.3 10.0 10.6 0.2 55.7 53.4 9.2 9.8 10.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.2 11.9 12.8 0.3 55.3 54.9 11.2 11.8 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 12.2 13.2 14.1 0.9 68.1 61.7 10.6 11.8 12.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 12.0 12.0 11.5 0.4 57.8 55.8 10.7 11.7 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 12.4 12.5 14.4 0.3 56.8 54.1 11.3 12.0 12.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.9 10.4 0.2 54.6 53.3 9.1 9.8 11.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 12.4 12.4 14.8 0.3 57.3 54.6 10.8 12.0 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 4.8 6.1 8.4 0.1 51.2 51.6 5.6 6.1 7.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.7 12.0 14.2 0.4 56.6 55.0 10.4 11.5 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 11.6 11.5 14.4 0.2 55.1 53.9 10.2 11.3 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 11.7 11.9 14.9 0.5 60.3 57.0 10.5 11.4 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.6 11.4 12.5 0.4 58.4 55.7 10.5 11.2 12.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 12.1 12.2 13.7 0.4 55.7 53.9 10.8 11.8 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 9.2 10.4 10.6 0.3 56.7 53.8 9.4 10.2 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 12.3 12.7 14.4 0.4 57.5 54.2 11.0 11.9 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 10.2 11.2 13.0 0.8 65.2 59.8 8.8 9.8 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 8.1 9.7 9.8 0.2 53.5 52.7 8.4 9.6 10.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 12.6 12.9 15.0 0.3 58.4 54.6 11.7 12.3 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------