***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.09.2017.-10.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 12.7 12.3 16.2 0.5 61.5 58.5 10.5 11.9 12.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 12.1 11.9 15.8 0.4 59.4 56.4 10.5 11.6 12.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 15.0 14.3 16.5 0.6 64.7 60.3 12.4 13.8 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 10.4 9.9 14.1 0.9 68.6 64.4 7.9 8.7 9.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 11.6 11.3 13.8 0.6 65.2 60.6 9.9 10.6 11.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 31 69 100 11.0 11.0 12.1 0.7 68.3 63.9 8.8 9.8 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 12.3 12.1 16.0 0.4 59.5 56.8 10.8 12.0 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 6.3 6.1 11.8 0.6 65.0 61.3 3.9 4.6 6.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 12.5 12.5 14.0 0.5 66.2 60.1 10.6 11.9 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 12.4 12.4 12.5 0.5 64.7 60.2 10.2 11.5 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 12.0 12.0 13.3 0.6 65.1 61.4 10.2 11.3 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 10.9 10.9 12.5 0.6 66.5 62.3 8.7 9.9 10.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 11.6 11.2 11.8 0.4 60.2 59.2 9.7 10.7 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 12.5 13.1 13.9 0.5 63.1 59.9 10.7 12.1 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 13.4 13.6 15.4 1.1 73.9 67.5 11.8 12.3 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 13.1 12.9 12.8 0.6 65.1 61.9 10.7 11.8 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 12.5 12.7 15.5 0.3 56.3 54.5 11.6 12.2 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 11.7 11.4 11.7 0.6 66.0 60.9 8.9 10.7 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 12.0 12.6 16.0 0.5 61.5 58.0 11.0 11.7 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 7.4 7.7 9.6 0.5 62.6 60.1 5.4 6.1 7.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 12.2 12.0 15.3 0.5 62.4 58.6 10.1 11.4 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.7 11.5 15.5 0.4 57.0 55.5 10.3 11.3 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 12.3 12.6 16.0 0.7 65.3 61.3 10.3 11.2 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 12.7 12.8 13.8 0.7 65.8 61.8 10.6 11.6 12.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 12.8 12.0 14.8 0.5 60.4 58.2 10.5 11.5 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 11.8 11.8 11.9 0.6 66.2 61.8 9.8 10.6 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 13.3 12.3 15.4 0.5 59.5 58.2 10.4 11.7 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 11.2 11.2 14.3 0.9 71.2 65.9 9.1 10.7 11.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 10.4 10.2 11.2 0.6 65.2 60.8 8.0 8.9 10.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 12.6 12.9 16.2 0.5 60.4 57.9 11.2 12.3 13.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------