***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.08.2017.-03.09.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 12.3 14.0 17.4 0.4 57.8 55.0 12.8 13.8 14.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 11.8 13.9 17.0 0.2 56.3 53.2 11.8 13.7 14.2 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 14.1 16.6 17.7 0.4 60.8 57.0 14.3 15.9 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 9.3 11.6 15.1 0.6 62.9 58.6 9.8 11.1 11.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 12.9 12.9 15.3 0.3 56.2 55.1 10.8 12.6 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 10.4 11.8 12.8 0.3 56.6 56.4 10.1 11.6 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 12.3 14.4 17.3 0.4 59.1 55.2 12.3 13.8 14.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 5.6 7.1 12.7 0.2 53.3 53.4 5.9 6.9 7.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 13.7 14.0 15.4 0.4 57.7 56.8 12.2 13.3 14.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 12.0 13.8 13.6 0.2 54.9 53.9 12.4 13.3 14.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 11.8 13.3 14.6 0.2 55.1 54.4 11.8 13.1 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.8 13.7 0.3 55.9 56.0 10.3 11.6 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 12.8 12.0 13.0 -0.1 45.4 49.2 11.0 12.4 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 14.4 14.4 15.1 0.3 57.8 54.5 13.0 14.1 14.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 15.6 15.7 16.9 1.0 70.4 66.1 13.4 14.8 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 12.7 14.4 14.0 0.2 53.9 54.3 12.5 14.3 14.9 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 12.5 14.1 16.7 0.3 57.5 53.2 12.7 14.0 14.6 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 10.6 12.0 12.9 0.2 54.4 53.8 10.8 11.6 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 12.3 14.1 17.2 0.3 58.6 54.8 12.6 13.8 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 6.7 8.1 10.8 0.0 49.0 50.8 6.9 8.1 9.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 11.7 13.3 16.5 0.3 54.7 54.8 11.9 12.9 14.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 11.7 13.5 16.8 0.2 56.4 52.8 11.9 13.3 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 14.0 14.1 17.3 0.6 64.9 58.2 12.0 13.2 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 12.3 14.2 15.1 0.4 59.5 56.9 12.4 13.5 14.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 12.1 14.0 16.3 0.3 56.7 54.0 12.3 13.7 14.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 13.1 13.1 13.0 0.3 54.8 55.5 11.5 13.0 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 12.0 14.1 16.8 0.3 57.4 54.1 11.7 13.9 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 13.5 13.2 15.5 0.7 65.5 62.1 10.9 12.0 13.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 9.3 10.9 12.1 0.1 49.8 51.4 9.8 10.9 12.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 12.3 14.6 17.4 0.3 58.1 54.6 12.5 14.0 14.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------