***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.08.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.08.2017.-27.08.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 76 24 0 100 13.3 13.3 16.0 -1.7 23.4 24.8 14.3 14.9 15.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 78 22 0 100 12.9 13.3 15.8 -1.8 23.2 24.0 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 15.5 15.3 16.3 -1.6 27.0 27.1 15.9 17.2 18.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 11.4 11.4 14.3 -1.1 34.2 35.1 11.2 12.8 13.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 11.8 11.2 14.4 -1.5 21.5 24.2 12.5 13.4 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 11.5 11.6 12.1 -1.0 27.1 31.5 11.7 12.5 13.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 13.2 13.7 16.1 -1.6 26.4 27.2 14.3 15.0 15.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 70 30 0 100 6.4 6.0 11.9 -1.4 20.4 24.5 7.1 8.1 8.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 69 31 0 100 13.1 12.9 14.6 -1.3 26.5 27.2 13.2 14.9 15.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 13.0 12.8 12.8 -1.4 21.2 24.4 13.1 14.4 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 73 27 0 100 12.3 11.9 14.0 -1.5 20.5 23.7 13.0 13.7 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 11.2 10.6 13.0 -1.4 23.3 26.8 11.4 12.5 12.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 80 20 0 100 11.9 11.8 12.8 -1.5 19.5 22.8 12.5 13.4 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 13.9 13.3 14.3 -1.4 25.4 28.0 13.9 15.2 15.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.2 16.5 -0.5 41.9 41.8 14.8 15.8 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 13.4 13.2 13.6 -1.3 23.2 27.0 14.4 14.8 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 74 26 0 100 13.8 13.7 15.6 -1.6 24.1 25.7 14.2 15.2 16.4 30 Palic 37000G16 65 35 0 100 11.5 11.2 12.2 -1.4 24.4 26.4 11.5 12.5 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 71 29 0 100 13.5 13.3 16.0 -1.6 25.8 26.8 13.9 15.2 15.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 79 21 0 100 7.2 7.2 10.3 -1.5 21.0 23.5 7.9 8.7 9.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 76 24 0 100 12.6 12.2 15.5 -1.6 22.4 24.3 13.7 14.4 15.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 71 29 0 100 12.8 12.9 15.9 -1.6 24.3 26.2 13.4 14.0 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 13.2 13.1 16.3 -1.2 30.0 32.4 13.3 14.3 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 13.7 13.1 14.4 -1.3 28.0 30.2 13.4 15.0 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 77 23 0 100 12.9 12.6 15.1 -1.8 17.8 21.3 13.3 14.3 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 12.6 12.9 12.0 -1.4 24.2 25.5 13.3 13.6 14.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 76 24 0 100 12.5 12.0 15.5 -1.7 21.1 24.2 13.7 15.0 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 13.7 12.6 14.9 -0.8 38.5 38.3 12.5 13.4 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 72 28 0 100 10.7 10.2 11.4 -1.5 20.8 23.1 11.3 12.3 13.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 72 28 0 100 13.1 13.5 16.2 -1.7 24.5 25.5 14.0 15.3 16.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------