***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2018.-16.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 32.0 56.1 41.5 106.1 64.2 51.1 34.4 53.1 56.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 26.9 54.8 37.0 103.9 60.1 49.6 29.1 45.5 61.6 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 34.5 65.0 40.2 100.9 63.2 51.3 30.5 56.1 66.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 63.0 75.6 45.1 113.3 67.9 57.1 43.3 58.0 72.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 52.8 60.6 41.4 106.9 65.2 55.8 29.7 45.6 61.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 46.0 45.7 46.6 107.2 59.8 55.0 22.9 38.7 55.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 26.5 51.8 38.7 109.1 64.7 50.3 28.3 37.3 53.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 78.9 92.2 50.6 111.3 66.2 57.8 56.5 69.6 91.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 47.7 53.0 40.3 96.8 59.7 51.9 33.0 43.3 60.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 51.0 67.4 50.2 104.9 63.7 54.7 29.1 45.2 68.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 50.7 57.2 39.9 104.3 64.5 53.8 30.3 45.5 60.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 42.8 57.8 40.1 109.3 64.9 56.4 26.9 36.6 59.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 47.7 51.8 43.7 119.6 67.3 57.7 36.7 43.6 49.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 39.4 80.9 52.7 103.2 63.3 52.0 39.6 57.8 81.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 29.2 44.0 37.4 108.6 65.1 55.0 16.4 22.0 44.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 48.8 54.6 41.4 113.8 65.2 56.6 29.4 44.7 55.3 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 30.8 55.2 38.9 108.3 64.0 49.3 35.3 46.8 55.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 59.6 74.3 58.2 108.5 66.0 56.0 35.9 52.5 74.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 32.0 61.8 37.0 100.3 59.5 49.5 28.6 49.7 65.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 68.8 82.5 64.5 116.5 67.5 60.7 48.7 60.8 81.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 53.9 53.2 39.0 97.2 61.1 51.3 26.2 45.2 59.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 35.3 59.0 39.7 103.7 60.9 48.3 38.6 51.5 61.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 31.7 63.3 39.2 99.7 61.4 50.1 28.0 48.8 66.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 60.6 71.2 50.3 104.2 64.0 53.2 36.0 52.0 76.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 57.3 60.5 45.5 109.7 65.4 54.2 35.4 49.8 60.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 33.7 43.7 41.2 125.1 68.6 61.1 25.9 30.7 42.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 57.8 59.8 44.3 107.3 64.4 51.6 35.8 50.3 61.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 41.6 48.5 41.5 110.7 66.0 56.3 23.8 36.5 48.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 97.5 110.3 63.0 114.1 68.5 59.0 51.7 90.1 109.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 30.0 49.2 38.2 102.9 61.4 49.3 27.5 44.0 50.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------