***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2018.-16.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 4.0 24.2 12.5 113.5 70.4 50.9 1.5 8.1 22.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.1 16.9 11.1 107.0 66.2 50.1 2.6 8.3 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 2.3 14.3 12.5 113.0 68.2 51.8 0.7 4.8 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 3.5 15.6 10.9 87.6 67.4 45.2 2.1 7.8 15.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 3.4 14.0 9.8 81.9 65.9 43.4 1.0 7.4 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 1.7 5.1 10.6 83.8 60.4 44.5 0.2 3.8 7.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 2.3 14.9 11.2 108.6 67.8 51.2 3.8 5.4 14.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 8.4 19.0 10.4 78.7 57.1 44.0 4.4 17.1 21.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 3.9 13.0 10.4 84.4 64.0 47.2 2.5 9.1 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 5.4 13.8 11.3 81.2 59.8 45.2 3.0 11.9 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.0 9.9 8.4 73.0 58.7 42.2 1.4 6.3 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.4 10.6 8.3 74.2 58.7 43.3 2.0 7.2 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 7.3 7.8 9.7 82.2 62.4 44.5 1.2 3.9 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 3.9 23.0 15.7 107.4 63.5 49.6 2.9 8.1 24.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 1.2 9.0 9.5 85.6 66.1 45.2 0.4 2.6 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 2.5 7.7 8.9 77.2 62.1 42.3 2.4 5.3 8.4 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 4.8 22.0 10.8 102.3 65.6 49.8 1.9 11.3 22.2 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 5.2 16.3 14.2 92.7 62.1 47.9 4.1 9.8 20.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.4 14.0 11.4 108.7 65.5 50.3 2.5 8.3 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 7.4 17.5 13.3 82.8 59.1 45.3 5.9 13.9 26.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 3.2 20.3 11.4 99.0 67.9 50.0 2.2 7.8 19.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 5.2 14.8 11.7 103.6 63.6 49.3 3.8 10.6 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 10.6 18.2 12.1 110.2 65.3 49.5 3.0 6.8 18.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 4.0 20.8 14.4 105.0 65.7 50.4 1.5 8.6 21.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 3.8 24.4 12.4 103.7 68.8 50.5 3.1 8.3 21.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 0.8 3.5 7.6 77.0 59.9 39.7 0.8 2.2 5.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 3.2 24.9 12.8 110.8 69.3 50.7 1.7 6.9 23.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 2.5 7.5 10.0 84.0 65.3 43.7 0.6 5.4 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 11.2 25.1 14.8 93.6 61.6 48.4 7.1 20.8 29.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 11.3 11.6 11.8 110.9 66.7 51.1 6.0 10.0 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------