***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2018.-09.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 7.0 7.0 7.8 81.6 59.7 46.8 0.1 4.7 10.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 6.3 8.3 6.9 81.1 62.5 47.2 1.3 3.7 9.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 7.8 6.7 8.2 86.7 63.3 47.6 1.1 4.8 8.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 13.8 18.1 7.1 77.4 63.0 47.9 4.1 9.2 20.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 2.8 12.8 7.0 79.1 63.3 46.4 2.6 6.2 16.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 4.1 9.0 9.0 82.3 62.9 44.3 4.1 7.7 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 9.6 11.9 7.3 85.7 63.8 46.9 1.0 6.7 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 8.9 27.6 9.8 96.0 65.0 49.4 9.6 18.3 28.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.8 16.7 7.7 81.2 62.4 47.8 2.1 9.3 17.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 3.9 12.6 9.9 91.0 64.2 48.8 2.8 7.8 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.3 17.8 7.0 82.7 64.9 46.8 3.8 8.8 18.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 4.4 17.2 7.5 92.5 66.3 48.3 4.5 9.4 16.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 14.3 19.5 9.4 111.5 70.2 50.9 3.2 11.9 19.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 3.8 13.4 10.4 86.0 58.7 45.9 1.8 7.7 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 1.0 6.6 6.2 80.0 67.6 47.9 0.6 2.2 6.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.5 17.6 7.9 94.1 66.6 49.1 3.7 7.2 17.5 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 1.8 9.5 7.1 81.2 64.4 46.4 1.0 4.2 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 5.5 17.2 12.5 98.4 64.6 48.5 4.1 11.6 17.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 11.1 12.3 7.2 83.6 62.8 47.0 1.6 7.6 13.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 8.3 20.9 13.2 99.7 63.3 48.2 6.5 15.3 21.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.3 10.6 7.3 80.1 63.0 47.7 1.4 5.9 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.7 13.2 7.6 81.3 63.0 46.7 3.5 9.7 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 1.9 8.4 7.9 88.6 62.0 46.0 2.0 3.7 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 3.1 13.8 10.9 94.8 64.2 47.6 1.5 6.6 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 2.1 8.4 7.4 74.5 59.8 46.6 0.2 4.3 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 2.1 12.4 7.1 96.0 69.3 42.5 1.2 6.3 11.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 1.9 6.9 7.6 74.6 58.3 45.7 0.4 3.8 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.4 11.4 7.1 81.7 66.2 47.0 1.5 7.4 11.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 22.5 27.0 13.1 99.4 63.5 49.6 12.2 19.1 27.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 7.2 8.9 7.4 83.9 61.7 47.1 0.7 4.9 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------