***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2018.-02.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 11.7 23.6 15.5 154.8 76.7 59.7 4.2 7.7 10.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 11.3 18.8 12.6 144.8 74.1 56.8 4.2 7.5 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 14.4 22.7 13.4 136.1 73.0 58.1 2.7 11.9 18.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 20.3 32.9 18.4 200.0 82.6 64.8 3.4 7.6 19.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 12.1 25.6 15.4 172.7 80.9 59.8 3.1 8.2 14.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 8.3 19.3 15.7 167.2 78.1 59.9 2.6 4.6 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 8.5 16.2 14.6 165.5 79.4 57.1 2.5 6.0 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 27.8 34.7 16.7 177.7 81.1 61.9 5.9 16.3 28.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 11.5 24.8 15.7 161.7 77.6 63.4 5.1 8.1 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 27.2 37.8 17.2 168.5 79.1 61.6 5.1 12.1 22.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 11.0 24.6 16.0 179.2 81.5 61.6 3.9 7.6 17.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 20.9 28.1 14.4 185.7 81.4 61.6 2.9 11.1 15.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 25.9 36.5 16.9 213.9 85.5 69.4 3.2 7.3 12.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 21.9 24.9 17.5 146.3 77.3 57.6 8.0 14.1 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 8.6 14.0 16.3 192.1 82.5 62.8 0.5 3.3 8.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 20.8 33.3 16.9 203.8 84.8 65.6 3.0 8.9 17.5 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 4.4 16.9 13.8 157.9 79.2 53.8 5.5 8.6 14.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 14.3 21.0 16.4 140.8 74.6 57.8 5.2 11.0 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 12.2 16.5 12.1 134.5 72.4 56.7 4.2 9.3 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 22.7 26.3 17.4 152.3 77.8 61.5 6.7 16.6 21.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 10.3 19.9 14.5 147.1 75.9 58.1 3.2 6.3 14.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 14.6 18.7 13.6 154.9 77.6 54.2 7.6 13.1 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 14.2 23.1 12.9 129.9 74.9 55.7 5.6 10.7 19.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 14.1 28.4 16.0 142.2 75.9 59.6 6.3 9.3 22.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 9.6 20.5 19.3 173.1 79.9 61.9 1.7 6.8 15.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.1 24.5 11.3 150.6 78.4 56.9 1.7 5.6 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 11.8 20.8 17.9 161.9 78.3 60.0 2.0 9.4 14.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 13.9 17.9 16.3 198.9 82.3 63.5 2.7 6.7 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 30.8 35.6 18.4 147.2 76.1 61.6 9.4 16.3 21.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 10.1 15.3 13.3 145.6 74.3 59.2 4.0 6.7 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------