***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2018.-26.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 4.2 4.0 5.7 67.0 60.4 49.7 0.0 2.0 6.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 7.5 12.2 6.5 79.9 62.0 47.2 1.6 4.8 12.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 6.1 7.9 6.1 64.4 59.4 49.1 1.7 3.8 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 15.2 15.7 8.7 96.8 69.4 64.3 0.3 2.5 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 43 57 100 8.9 6.0 9.1 102.8 68.6 64.3 0.7 2.3 6.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 7.0 10.5 11.2 108.0 68.2 64.8 0.5 5.9 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 2.8 11.8 5.7 71.8 58.7 45.4 0.5 6.5 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 14.0 23.9 13.7 109.0 69.0 61.6 2.9 11.9 23.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 3.9 4.6 6.4 63.5 58.1 52.6 0.2 2.2 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 5.8 10.1 11.8 90.4 63.4 57.3 1.4 4.0 10.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 4.1 9.3 8.4 91.4 68.4 61.9 1.3 2.3 7.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 3.8 7.0 9.9 102.3 70.8 62.5 0.5 2.8 5.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 4.5 9.3 7.6 91.1 68.0 61.3 0.0 2.8 9.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 12.0 12.7 9.1 73.6 58.7 48.9 3.5 7.6 21.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 2.2 6.4 5.4 76.1 69.7 63.6 0.4 0.9 5.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 3.9 4.5 7.7 94.7 69.1 62.6 0.3 2.7 4.3 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 3.1 15.5 7.3 91.7 61.6 47.0 3.0 7.1 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 8.3 13.1 15.1 105.7 66.8 58.5 1.5 5.4 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 11.9 11.4 6.2 71.8 60.2 47.3 3.1 9.6 14.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 16.6 19.4 20.7 140.6 74.8 68.1 1.3 11.1 15.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 5.4 5.9 5.8 60.3 56.9 50.5 0.5 3.4 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 12.3 13.6 6.9 77.7 59.6 46.3 3.7 9.8 16.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 9.6 10.0 6.2 66.2 57.7 47.9 1.2 6.8 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 10.2 7.7 8.9 75.3 60.9 50.0 1.1 7.1 11.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 87 13 100 3.9 4.4 6.5 76.4 61.6 56.5 0.6 2.5 4.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 25 75 100 11.3 18.1 15.2 192.8 81.6 75.7 0.2 3.8 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 9.1 8.9 5.9 70.9 59.9 51.6 0.4 5.8 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 45 55 100 9.2 10.8 8.1 90.5 69.6 64.3 0.0 1.7 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 13.9 18.3 16.8 120.5 70.5 61.8 1.0 11.1 16.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 6.8 10.1 5.7 66.8 61.0 46.2 0.9 5.0 10.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------