***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2018.-16.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 27.0 27.2 28.2 1.2 73.1 68.9 25.0 25.6 26.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 26.7 26.8 28.2 1.0 69.5 66.2 25.1 26.0 26.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 26.7 26.4 28.1 0.8 65.7 63.5 25.3 26.0 26.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 19.6 19.7 25.3 0.5 61.2 58.9 18.5 19.3 19.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 27.0 26.7 25.4 -0.2 48.1 49.2 25.6 26.8 27.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 25.6 25.2 22.9 -0.3 47.5 47.9 24.8 25.2 26.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 26.5 26.7 28.3 1.2 73.2 68.8 24.6 25.5 26.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 14.1 14.3 23.0 -0.6 40.1 41.0 14.1 15.1 15.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 26.6 26.4 25.8 -0.1 49.8 50.4 25.4 26.4 26.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 26.2 25.6 24.0 -0.5 44.0 44.6 25.0 25.8 26.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 26.7 26.3 25.3 -0.2 46.9 47.9 25.0 26.5 27.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 26.1 25.4 24.5 -0.4 44.4 45.2 24.4 25.7 26.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 26.9 26.2 24.4 -0.5 42.3 44.1 25.8 26.6 27.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 26.3 26.0 25.3 -0.1 49.7 49.4 25.4 26.0 26.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 27.5 27.6 27.2 1.0 71.0 66.7 25.9 26.9 27.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 27.8 27.4 25.0 -0.2 47.7 48.6 26.1 27.5 28.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 34 66 100 26.1 26.3 28.0 1.1 71.4 68.2 24.3 24.9 26.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 25.4 24.6 23.2 -0.6 42.1 42.4 24.1 25.2 25.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 26.7 26.2 28.1 0.9 67.0 64.3 25.1 25.7 26.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 20.1 20.1 20.5 -1.1 29.2 33.4 20.1 21.3 22.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 26.5 26.4 26.9 0.1 54.0 54.8 25.3 26.4 26.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 42 58 100 26.5 26.8 27.7 1.0 68.2 65.7 24.9 25.6 26.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 25.9 26.6 27.9 0.8 66.0 62.4 25.1 25.6 26.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 25.8 25.6 25.4 -0.1 51.6 50.2 25.0 25.6 25.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 26.5 26.6 26.1 0.4 58.7 59.0 25.1 26.2 27.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 26.4 25.9 24.2 -0.3 45.9 47.0 25.6 26.0 27.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 26.6 26.6 27.2 0.9 68.3 65.5 25.1 25.8 26.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 27.3 27.3 25.9 0.5 62.3 59.6 26.0 27.0 27.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 19.8 19.8 22.1 -0.8 35.8 38.1 19.7 20.6 21.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 26.4 26.7 28.3 1.1 71.3 67.4 25.1 25.7 26.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------