***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2018.-16.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 25.5 25.7 25.8 0.7 58.6 57.3 22.0 25.0 26.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 25.7 25.7 25.7 0.6 56.5 55.7 22.5 25.1 26.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 25.9 25.9 25.8 0.5 55.2 55.7 22.8 25.5 26.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 18.3 18.9 23.7 0.6 59.9 56.2 14.9 17.8 19.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 26.2 26.0 23.7 0.1 52.3 52.1 23.1 25.9 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 25.0 24.8 21.6 0.2 53.5 52.3 22.2 24.6 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 25.5 25.5 25.7 0.7 57.9 56.7 22.1 25.1 26.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 14.5 14.2 22.0 0.0 51.3 50.9 12.6 14.1 15.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 26.2 25.9 23.9 0.1 51.8 51.6 22.7 25.9 26.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 25.4 25.0 22.6 0.0 51.4 51.0 23.0 25.0 25.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 25.9 25.7 23.5 0.2 53.0 52.2 22.9 25.5 26.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 25.2 25.0 23.3 0.2 52.4 52.2 22.7 24.9 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 26.3 26.1 22.5 -0.1 49.5 49.6 23.7 26.1 26.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 25.5 24.9 23.3 -0.1 49.6 50.3 22.7 24.9 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 26.0 26.7 24.7 0.9 65.2 58.9 22.7 25.6 26.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 26.9 26.7 23.4 0.2 53.0 52.4 24.0 26.5 27.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 24.9 24.7 25.5 0.6 57.7 56.2 21.5 24.4 25.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 24.4 24.0 22.0 -0.1 50.7 50.4 22.0 24.0 25.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 25.4 24.9 25.7 0.5 55.3 55.1 22.5 24.8 26.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 20.8 20.2 19.5 -0.3 46.8 47.8 18.7 20.5 21.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 25.8 25.9 24.8 0.2 52.8 52.7 22.6 25.5 26.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 25.5 25.6 25.3 0.6 56.2 55.7 22.2 24.9 25.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 25.2 24.9 25.5 0.4 53.6 54.4 22.6 24.6 26.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 25.5 25.3 23.5 0.1 51.4 51.5 22.5 25.2 26.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 25.4 25.7 23.9 0.3 54.8 54.1 22.5 24.9 26.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 25.9 25.6 23.2 0.4 57.4 54.8 23.9 25.4 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 25.8 25.8 24.8 0.6 57.4 56.3 22.3 25.4 26.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 26.0 26.3 24.1 0.7 61.6 56.9 23.1 25.7 26.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.7 19.0 20.9 -0.2 48.2 49.0 17.5 19.2 20.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 25.3 25.9 25.8 0.7 57.8 56.4 22.4 24.8 26.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------