***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.09.2018.-09.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 36 64 100 25.9 26.2 27.9 1.5 68.4 65.2 23.0 24.0 26.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 26.2 26.2 28.0 1.5 66.2 65.2 22.8 24.4 26.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 26.1 25.5 28.0 1.3 65.3 63.3 22.9 24.2 25.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 18.9 17.8 25.6 1.0 61.7 60.6 15.8 17.1 17.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 25.2 25.0 25.4 0.4 55.3 55.0 23.3 24.6 26.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 24.0 23.7 22.9 0.4 53.8 54.0 22.4 23.5 24.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 25.9 26.0 28.1 1.6 67.3 66.7 22.4 23.6 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 13.7 13.4 23.4 0.2 52.0 52.3 12.0 13.2 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 25.2 24.9 25.6 0.4 53.8 54.5 22.8 24.7 26.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 24.6 24.3 24.2 0.3 53.5 53.3 22.8 24.2 25.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 25.0 25.0 25.1 0.4 54.1 54.6 23.0 24.3 26.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 24.0 23.6 24.7 0.3 53.5 53.3 22.3 23.4 25.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 24.9 24.6 23.9 0.1 50.6 50.6 23.5 24.5 26.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 25.0 24.7 25.1 0.5 52.4 55.0 23.2 24.6 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 26.3 25.9 26.7 1.5 67.6 64.5 23.7 24.9 25.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 25.5 25.6 24.9 0.4 53.7 54.6 23.9 25.0 27.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 25.7 25.0 27.8 1.5 64.8 65.2 22.4 23.5 25.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 23.9 23.7 23.6 0.3 52.3 53.2 21.9 23.3 24.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 26.0 25.6 28.0 1.4 65.4 64.3 22.7 24.1 25.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 19.7 19.0 20.8 -0.2 46.1 48.4 18.3 19.1 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 25.2 25.2 26.7 0.7 58.6 57.2 22.9 24.5 26.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 43 57 100 26.2 25.7 27.6 1.4 64.3 63.9 22.9 24.4 26.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 40 60 100 26.3 25.0 27.7 1.3 63.9 62.6 22.7 24.4 25.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 24.7 24.4 25.3 0.6 54.8 55.8 22.9 24.2 25.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 26.2 25.5 25.8 0.9 62.4 59.5 23.0 23.9 25.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 25.0 24.9 24.7 0.6 56.2 56.7 23.1 24.6 25.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 26.1 25.9 26.9 1.3 67.1 63.8 22.7 23.6 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 41 59 100 26.3 25.6 25.9 1.1 61.8 61.2 24.2 24.9 26.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 19.3 18.6 22.4 0.0 48.7 51.2 17.9 18.8 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 25.7 26.2 28.1 1.6 67.4 66.1 22.6 23.7 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------