***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.08.2018.-02.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 27.4 27.1 28.0 0.3 55.5 54.5 24.5 27.0 27.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 26.9 26.4 27.8 0.1 49.0 51.6 24.9 26.5 27.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 26.6 26.1 27.7 -0.2 48.2 49.3 24.8 26.1 27.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 19.7 19.6 25.2 -0.1 51.4 50.4 17.6 19.2 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 25.1 26.0 25.1 -1.1 38.0 40.5 25.3 27.3 28.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 24.1 24.8 22.9 -0.9 41.4 41.1 24.2 26.2 27.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 26.6 26.6 28.0 0.3 55.2 54.6 25.0 26.2 27.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 13.5 13.4 22.6 -1.7 29.7 33.7 13.6 15.4 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 24.0 25.6 25.6 -1.1 37.5 40.1 24.6 26.1 27.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 24.0 24.3 23.6 -1.5 31.7 35.6 24.6 26.2 27.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 24.3 25.5 25.1 -1.3 35.9 38.5 25.2 26.8 27.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 24.0 24.7 24.1 -1.4 34.8 37.1 24.5 26.2 27.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 24.8 25.2 24.4 -1.3 34.7 37.5 25.1 27.5 28.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 23.9 24.9 24.9 -1.3 33.2 37.6 24.9 26.2 27.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 27.4 27.8 27.6 0.6 59.6 58.2 26.0 27.0 28.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 25.6 26.6 24.9 -1.1 37.9 40.3 25.7 27.8 29.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 26.0 25.7 27.6 0.2 52.9 53.4 24.2 25.4 26.6 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 23.3 22.9 22.6 -1.7 28.8 33.7 23.7 25.8 26.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 26.6 25.6 27.7 -0.1 46.4 49.6 24.6 26.1 27.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 19.7 18.4 20.2 -2.1 22.6 28.8 19.7 22.1 23.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 24.4 26.0 26.7 -0.8 42.2 43.2 24.7 26.4 27.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 26.6 26.0 27.3 0.0 49.6 50.7 24.6 26.0 27.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 26.6 25.8 27.4 -0.3 45.9 47.9 24.4 26.2 27.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 23.7 24.4 25.0 -1.2 35.1 38.8 24.1 25.9 27.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 24.6 26.7 26.0 -0.4 48.7 48.0 25.4 26.8 27.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 25.2 25.6 24.0 -1.1 37.6 40.4 24.8 27.3 28.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 26.9 26.7 27.0 0.1 53.6 52.5 25.2 26.4 27.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 27.5 27.0 25.9 0.0 51.0 51.0 25.4 27.0 28.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 18.5 18.2 21.6 -2.0 26.1 30.8 19.3 20.7 22.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 26.9 26.5 28.0 0.2 52.5 52.9 24.8 26.5 27.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------