***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2018.-26.08.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 15 85 100 30.7 31.3 31.2 2.1 83.2 78.6 27.2 28.6 29.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 30.1 30.6 31.2 1.9 77.7 74.2 27.3 28.4 28.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 28 72 100 30.3 30.5 30.8 1.5 74.5 71.5 27.5 28.4 29.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 22.1 22.8 26.7 0.4 57.7 58.0 20.9 21.7 23.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 30.0 29.9 27.3 -0.2 51.8 52.8 28.1 29.6 30.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 87 13 100 28.4 27.7 24.2 -0.7 43.6 43.3 27.0 28.0 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 29.7 30.1 31.4 2.2 80.6 77.2 26.9 28.3 28.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 17.6 16.3 24.1 -1.1 40.2 41.0 16.1 17.0 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 28.9 28.9 28.3 0.1 57.2 57.0 27.7 28.5 29.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 29.1 28.5 25.7 -0.6 48.5 48.2 27.3 28.7 29.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 29.5 29.1 27.4 -0.3 49.9 51.2 27.6 29.1 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 29.4 27.4 25.7 -0.7 44.5 45.2 26.8 28.9 29.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 85 15 100 29.6 28.7 26.6 -0.6 44.9 45.8 28.0 29.1 30.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 28.3 28.7 28.0 0.3 60.2 60.1 26.6 28.0 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 31.1 31.3 29.7 1.0 67.5 66.7 27.6 29.5 31.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 85 15 100 30.7 30.1 26.8 -0.4 46.7 48.1 28.8 30.3 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 29.3 29.7 31.1 2.2 82.1 77.0 26.2 28.0 29.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 27.8 26.9 24.5 -0.9 45.2 45.2 26.0 27.4 28.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 29.5 30.1 31.0 1.6 76.5 72.5 26.6 27.9 28.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 22.0 22.1 21.7 -1.8 32.1 32.3 22.2 23.2 25.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 44 56 100 30.1 29.8 29.5 0.5 63.2 62.3 27.6 28.6 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 29.6 30.2 30.7 1.9 79.0 74.3 27.0 28.4 28.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 29.4 30.2 30.7 1.6 77.4 72.0 27.1 27.8 29.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 28.2 28.3 27.8 0.2 58.4 57.6 26.4 27.8 28.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 30.1 30.4 28.8 0.8 66.7 65.2 27.4 28.7 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 29.7 28.4 24.8 -1.2 37.4 38.2 28.0 29.1 29.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 30.1 30.5 30.0 1.5 77.4 73.5 27.0 28.4 29.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 29.8 30.0 27.6 0.3 57.7 57.3 28.4 29.3 31.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 23.1 22.1 23.5 -1.2 41.3 40.7 21.8 22.5 24.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 29.9 30.6 31.3 2.0 79.9 75.5 27.1 28.0 29.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------