***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.08.2018.-16.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 13.5 13.7 17.3 1.1 78.8 73.2 12.8 13.0 13.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 13.4 13.6 16.9 1.0 77.3 71.6 12.7 12.9 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 15.7 15.8 17.2 0.8 75.9 69.6 14.5 15.0 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 11.5 11.4 14.5 0.6 70.0 66.2 10.0 10.7 11.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 12.1 12.0 14.3 0.3 63.5 60.1 11.5 11.8 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 11.0 11.0 12.2 0.2 60.9 58.3 10.4 10.9 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 30 70 100 13.5 13.6 17.2 1.1 80.8 73.5 13.0 13.3 13.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 6.6 6.6 12.0 0.2 58.8 57.4 6.2 6.4 6.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 13.4 13.2 14.4 0.4 65.7 61.1 12.6 13.0 13.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 12.9 13.0 12.8 0.3 62.0 59.1 12.3 12.9 13.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 12.8 12.6 13.8 0.3 62.3 60.5 11.9 12.4 12.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 10.8 11.1 12.8 0.2 59.7 58.7 10.3 10.7 11.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 11.9 11.8 12.4 0.1 56.3 55.5 11.2 11.7 12.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 13.5 13.7 14.4 0.3 63.8 59.7 13.1 13.3 13.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 23 77 100 14.4 14.6 16.1 1.0 80.0 74.3 13.4 13.9 14.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 13.3 13.5 13.2 0.3 60.9 58.6 12.7 13.1 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 13.8 14.1 16.7 1.0 79.5 72.8 13.2 13.4 13.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 11.3 11.4 12.0 0.2 59.8 57.1 10.7 11.1 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 13.4 13.5 16.9 0.9 75.2 70.2 12.8 13.1 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 7.6 7.5 10.0 0.0 51.2 51.9 7.0 7.4 7.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 12.9 13.0 15.8 0.5 67.8 62.7 12.3 12.8 12.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 32 68 100 12.9 13.0 16.7 1.0 77.2 71.8 12.2 12.4 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 12.8 12.8 16.7 0.8 72.7 68.6 12.2 12.5 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 13.2 13.4 14.2 0.4 65.3 61.8 12.4 12.7 13.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 13.2 13.3 15.7 0.6 70.9 65.2 12.5 12.9 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 12.0 12.1 12.0 0.2 56.9 56.8 11.4 11.9 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 13.8 13.9 16.4 0.8 74.9 69.0 12.7 13.1 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 32 68 100 12.2 12.3 14.7 0.7 71.6 66.9 10.9 11.6 11.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 10.6 10.5 11.3 0.1 55.3 54.0 9.7 10.4 10.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 13.7 13.8 17.3 1.1 80.2 73.1 13.1 13.5 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------