***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.08.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.09.2018.-16.09.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 12.7 12.5 15.2 0.5 57.2 57.3 10.3 12.4 12.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 12.2 12.0 14.9 0.4 57.1 56.2 10.8 11.9 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 14.4 14.3 15.2 0.4 54.6 55.8 13.0 14.0 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 10.2 9.8 12.5 0.3 54.8 55.9 8.5 9.6 10.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 10.9 10.4 12.2 0.0 50.6 51.5 9.3 10.4 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 10.1 9.9 10.7 0.2 53.1 53.7 8.0 9.7 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 12.0 12.1 15.1 0.5 58.5 56.8 10.9 11.7 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 4.0 5.8 10.3 0.1 50.5 51.8 4.3 5.8 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.2 11.8 12.4 0.0 48.8 50.9 11.1 12.0 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 10.1 11.4 11.0 0.0 49.0 50.8 10.2 11.5 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 11.4 11.1 11.6 0.1 51.2 51.5 9.6 11.1 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.1 9.8 10.9 0.1 50.4 52.4 8.3 9.8 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 9.0 10.0 10.3 0.0 46.7 50.3 8.8 10.2 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 12.5 12.0 12.5 0.0 47.2 50.8 10.9 12.2 12.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 12.7 13.0 13.8 0.5 58.5 58.8 10.6 12.4 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 10.5 11.5 11.2 0.1 49.9 51.8 10.5 11.5 12.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 12.5 12.3 14.6 0.4 55.6 55.8 11.2 12.0 12.6 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 8.7 10.0 10.1 0.0 47.2 51.0 8.9 10.2 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 12.2 12.1 14.9 0.4 56.0 55.5 10.9 11.9 12.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 4.9 6.1 8.2 0.0 47.4 50.6 5.0 6.2 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.7 11.4 13.9 0.1 49.6 52.5 10.5 11.4 12.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 11.6 11.6 14.5 0.4 56.4 55.5 10.1 11.3 12.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 11.6 11.5 14.7 0.3 55.6 54.7 10.5 11.4 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 10.1 11.1 12.2 0.1 49.3 51.7 10.4 11.1 12.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 12.2 12.1 13.7 0.3 53.6 54.9 10.6 11.9 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 10.6 10.2 10.4 0.2 52.4 54.0 9.1 10.1 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 12.7 12.5 14.4 0.4 55.4 56.0 10.9 12.4 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 11.1 10.8 12.7 0.4 55.8 56.4 8.5 10.8 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 7.6 8.9 9.6 0.0 46.2 49.9 8.5 9.2 10.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 12.5 12.6 15.2 0.5 59.0 57.0 11.1 12.2 12.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------